Match Info

AZERBAIJAN: Premier League - Round 23

Date: 17 February 2025, Monday

Location: ASCO Arena (Baku)

Referee: Ahmadov R. (Aze)

Where to Watch on TV:


Azerbaijan	CBC Sport


	Səbail		Sabah

	1	X	2
				Watch
	4.33	3.4	1.7
	4.42	3.71	1.74
				Watch
	4.5	3.3	1.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.42 ↓ (4.47)	3.47 ↑ (3.4)	1.73 ↓ (1.73)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Səbail
20.7%

Draw
26.4%

Sabah
52.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

20.5%

26.9%

52.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

20.4%

27%

53%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Səbail has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

Sabah has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Səbail than the current prediction. (-0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sabah than the current prediction. (+0.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	11.1%	55.6%

Səbail - Sabah Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Səbail will win (votes: 3 - 37.5%). Sabah will win (votes: 5 - 62.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Sabah: 29% – 96%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Mustabazada A. (G) 14. Allouch S. 20. Celik M. 10. Gomis D. 8. Larrucea G. 3. Lytvyn D. 7. Maddi 96. Muradov I. 74. Nabiyev Y. (C) 99. Nshuti I. 16. Rustamov E.	92. Pokatilov S. (G) 88. Aliyev K. 5. Dashdamirov R. 6. Khaybulaev A. 13. Lepinjica I. 7. Letic B. 11. Parris K. 18. Safranko P. 70. Sekidika J. 2. Seydiyev A. (C) 40. Ygor Nogueira
Substitutes
22. Abbasov M. 19. Abdullayev S. 11. Abdullazada R. 18. Ahmadov S. 97. Mammadov O. 25. Mammadzada N. (G) 77. Nabiyev F. 4. Nikolic M. 1. Quliyev H. (G) 83. Quliyev N. 88. Shiraliyev H. 5. Sofir G.	32. Dunyamaliyev E. 1. Imanov Y. (G) 99. Kupusovic N. 15. Mammadov S. 55. Mehbaliyev N. (G) 17. Mutallimov T. 9. Nuriyev A. 33. Rakhmonaliyev U. 22. Rzayev A. 77. Seyidov S. 12. Thill V.
Coaches
Huseynov C.	Berezutski V.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
36', Larrucea G. ↓, Sofir G. ↑,
39', Lepinjica I. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Nshuti I. ↓, Nabiyev F. ↑,
56', Rustamov E. 🟨,
61', Parris K. ↓, Rakhmonaliyev U. ↑,
67', Gomis D. ↓, Abdullazada R. ↑,
75', Aliyev K. ↓, Rzayev A. ↑,
85', Safranko P. ↓, Kupusovic N. ↑,
85', Sekidika J. ↓, Thill V. ↑,
88', Ygor Nogueira 🟨,
90+2', Maddi ↓, Abbasov M. ↑,

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Səbail won 1.

One and the other team get a very uncertain game.

Sabah could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Sabah is a favorite.

Last 20 head-to-head matches Səbail won 7 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 10 matches and goals 18:31 (average 0.9:1.6).

Including matches at home between the teams Səbail won 5 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 15:17 (average 1.5:1.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Səbail FK
Azerbaijan Premier League
11.02.25	Qarabağ Agdam - Səbail	5:0 ✺
Azerbaijan Cup
06.02.25	Səbail - Qarabağ Agdam	0:1 ✺
Azerbaijan Premier League
01.02.25	Turan Tovuz - Səbail	1:1 ✺
25.01.25	Səbail - Kapaz	1:0 ✺
18.01.25	Sumgayit - Səbail	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.9 LLTWW
- Sabah Baku FK
Azerbaijan Premier League
09.02.25	Sabah - Turan Tovuz	2:1 ✺
Azerbaijan Cup
05.02.25	Sabah - Sumgayit	0:0 ✺
Azerbaijan Premier League
31.01.25	Kapaz - Sabah	3:2 ✺
25.01.25	Sabah - Sumgayit	0:0 ✺
19.01.25	Neftchi Baku - Sabah	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 WTLTT

Latest Head to Head

Azerbaijan Premier League
29.11.24	Sabah - Səbail	1:0
22.09.24	Səbail - Sabah	2:4
27.04.24	Sabah - Səbail	2:0
24.02.24	Səbail - Sabah	2:0
10.12.23	Sabah - Səbail	4:0
30.09.23	Səbail - Sabah	2:2
08.04.23	Səbail - Sabah	2:1

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