Match Info

Super Lig - Round 6

Date: 21 September 2025, Sunday

Location: Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu (Samsun)

Referee: Altay C. (Tur)

Where to Watch on TV:


Asia	TOD
Turkey	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2


	Samsunspor		Fatih Karagümrükspor

	1	X	2
	1.71	3.5	4.75	Watch
	1.72	3.82	4.51
	1.76	3.79	4.88
	2.52	2.29	4.37	Watch
	1.74	3.83	4.74	Watch
	1.59	3.95	5.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.84 ↑ (1.58)	3.53 ↓ (3.94)	4.74 ↓ (5.27)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Samsunspor
52.4%

Draw
27.3%

Fatih Karagümrükspor
20.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58.8%

23.6%

17.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Samsunspor has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Samsunspor's form might have worsened.

Fatih Karagümrükspor has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
64.7%	0%	35.3%

Samsunspor - Fatih Karagümrükspor Predictions

Users Predictions: 17 users predict this event. Samsunspor will win (votes: 11 - 64.7%). Karagümrük will win (votes: 6 - 35.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Samsunspor: 42% – 87.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Samsunspor (votes: 3 - 50%). Karagümrük (votes: 3 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 1.75, 2nd Half - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 1, 1st Half - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 2.75 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH -0.75 - Samsunspor (1.94) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Samsunspor (votes: 4 - 50%). Karagümrük (votes: 4 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Kocuk O. (G) 37. Satka L. 55. Cift Y. E. 4. Van Drongelen R. 18. Yavru Z. 21. Holse C. 10. Ntcham O. 17. Tomasson L. 7. Musaba A. 70. Coulibaly T. 19. Ndiaye C.	13. Grbic I. (G) 47. Esgaio R. 6. Cankaya A. R. 94. Cinar A. 29. Balkovec J. 14. Doh M. 11. Johnson D. 8. Ozcan B. 91. Gray A. 21. Cukur T. 70. Serginho
Substitutes
6. Aydin E. 24. Borevkovic T. 28. Gonul S. 29. Makoumbou A. 9. Marius 2. Mendes J. 12. Posiadala A. (G) 48. Toruz E. B. (G) 22. Yaldir P. 5. Yuksel C.	99. Beklevic F. (G) 37. Camacho J. 34. Demirol A. 19. Fofana D. D. 32. Kadioglu M. 72. Kalayci B. 20. Kalpakli T. 33. Kurukalip C. 23. Larsson S. 27. Ugrekhelidze N.
Coaches
Reis T.	Licka M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
17', Cukur T. 🟨,
31', 0 - 1, Satka L. (Own goal),
2nd Half (3 - 1)
49', Cift Y. E. 🟨,
52', 1 - 1, Cinar A. (Own goal),
54', 2 - 1, Ndiaye C. ⚽, Holse C. (A),
57', Doh M. ↓, Larsson S. ↑,
65', Ndiaye C. ↓, Marius ↑,
68', Ozcan B. ↓, Kalayci B. ↑,
68', Gray A. ↓, Fofana D. D. ↑,
70', Coulibaly T. ↓, Yuksel C. ↑,
77', Musaba A. 🟨,
77', Esgaio R. 🟨,
81', 2 - 2, Fofana D. D. ⚽, Larsson S. (A),
85', Cift Y. E. ↓, Makoumbou A. ↑,
87', Yavru Z. ↓, Mendes J. ↑,
89', Serginho ↓, Camacho J. ↑,
89', Cinar A. ↓, Ugrekhelidze N. ↑,
90+3', 3 - 2, Musaba A. ⚽, Tomasson L. (A),

Preview

This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 8 and 17 in the zone Relegation ~ 1. Lig).

The current form of both teams is below expectations.

In this match, Samsunspor is considered a favorite.

There will not play in Samsunspor: Kilinc E. (Injury)

There are questionable in Samsunspor: Aydogdu S. (Injury)

There are questionable in Karagümrük: Sivri A. (Injury)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Samsunspor won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 6:6. (average 1.2:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Samsunspor won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:1. (average 0.5:0.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Samsunspor
Turkish Super League
17.09.25	Samsunspor - Kasımpaşa	0:0 ✺
13.09.25	Samsunspor - Antalyaspor	1:2 ✺
31.08.25	Trabzonspor - Samsunspor	1:1 ✺
UEFA Europa League
28.08.25	Samsunspor - Panathinaikos	0:0 ✺
21.08.25	Panathinaikos - Samsunspor	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.6 TLTTL
- Fatih Karagümrükspor
Turkish Super League
17.09.25	Fatih Karagümrükspor - İstanbul Başakşehir	0:2 ✺
13.09.25	Fatih Karagümrükspor - Kasımpaşa	0:1 ✺
30.08.25	Antalyaspor - Fatih Karagümrükspor	1:2 ✺
22.08.25	Fatih Karagümrükspor - Göztepe	0:2 ✺
15.08.25	Galatasaray - Fatih Karagümrükspor	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 LLWLL

Latest Head to Head

Turkish Super League
25.05.24	Fatih Karagümrükspor - Samsunspor	3:1
Turkish Cup
06.02.24	Fatih Karagümrükspor - Samsunspor	2:1
Turkish Super League
06.01.24	Samsunspor - Fatih Karagümrükspor	1:0
Turkish Cup
28.01.15	Fatih Karagümrükspor - Samsunspor	0:3
03.12.14	Samsunspor - Fatih Karagümrükspor	0:1

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