Match Info

SPAIN: PRIMERA RFEF - GROUP 2 - ROUND 27

Date: 10 March 2024, Sunday


	San Fernando		Mérida AD

	1	X	2
	1.8	3.1	4
	1.85	3.25	4.33	Watch
	1.86	3.16	4.93
	1.86	3.16	4.93
	1.87	3.04	4.67
	1.81	3.15	4.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.84 ↓ (2.24)	3.14 ↑ (2.93)	4.54 ↑ (3.39)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 5.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

San Fernando
50.2%

Draw
29.4%

Mérida AD
20.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.2%

31.5%

27.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.9%

31.3%

27.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

San Fernando has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in San Fernando's performance.

Mérida AD has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Mérida AD might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for San Fernando than the current prediction. (-9.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with San Fernando that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mérida AD than the current prediction. (+7.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Mérida AD could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

San Fernando - Mérida AD Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Fuoli D. (G) 21. Arroyo N. 5. Blanco C. 15. Ruiz V. 3. Ruiz L. 7. Biabiany J. 10. Ramos D. 18. Naveira U. 20. Masogo A. 16. Leon C. 11. Aquino D.	1. Juanpa (G) 23. Rodriguez D. 22. Bourdal T. 12. Falcon E. 2. Midon D. 16. Martin J. 6. Gutierrez I. 14. Beneit R. 15. Juanjo 9. Chuma 11. Mizzian M.
Substitutes
13. Arana E. (G) 22. Davila Y. 4. Farrando M. 14. Fullana F. 26. Herrera M. 2. Lillo 8. Martin A. 19. Martinez P. 23. Ramirez J. 9. Ribeiro 17. Sanchez A.	17. Alvaro J. 4. Bonaque M. 19. Felipe 8. Ndongo N. 18. Padilla J. 3. Prada R. 7. Sandoval D. 10. Serra D. 13. Vicente D. (G)

Preview

The two neighboring teams will play in the exciting match (ranked 16 in the zone Relegation and 15).

Last 5 head-to-head matches San Fernando won 2.

San Fernando is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Mérida AD is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

San Fernando could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match San Fernando is a favorite.

Last 10 head-to-head matches San Fernando won 4 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 10-13.

Including matches at home between the teams San Fernando won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 4-3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD San Fernando
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
03.03.24	Castellón - San Fernando	1:0 ✺
24.02.24	San Fernando - Atlético Madrid B	0:0 ✺
17.02.24	Antequera - San Fernando	2:1 ✺
11.02.24	San Fernando - Recreativo Huelva	1:1 ✺
03.02.24	Real Murcia - San Fernando	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.1 LTLTL
- Mérida AD
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
03.03.24	Mérida AD - Atlético Baleares	2:1 ✺
25.02.24	Ibiza - Mérida AD	0:0 ✺
17.02.24	Mérida AD - Castellón	2:1 ✺
11.02.24	Real Madrid Castilla - Mérida AD	0:1 ✺
04.02.24	Antequera - Mérida AD	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 32.8 WTWWT

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
18.11.23	Mérida AD - San Fernando	0:2
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
22.01.23	Mérida AD - San Fernando	0:1
23.10.22	San Fernando - Mérida AD	1:2
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 4
01.12.19	Mérida AD - San Fernando	1:1
14.01.18	San Fernando - Mérida AD	1:0
27.08.17	Mérida AD - San Fernando	2:1
05.02.17	Mérida AD - San Fernando	3:0

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