Match Info

SPAIN: PRIMERA RFEF - GROUP 2 - ROUND 22

Date: 3 February 2024, Saturday


	Real Murcia		San Fernando

	1	X	2
	1.8	3.1	4.2
	1.78	3	4.33
	1.83	3.2	4.5
	1.85	3.05	4.8
	1.82	3.22	4.9
	2	2.88	3.4
	1.81	3.16	4.76
	1.83	3.15	4.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.84 ↓ (2.17)	3.1 ↑ (2.88)	4.39 ↑ (3.14)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Real Murcia
49.7%

Draw
29.5%

San Fernando
20.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.9%

30.8%

28.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.4%

29.7%

27.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Real Murcia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Real Murcia's performance.

San Fernando has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and San Fernando might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Real Murcia than the current prediction. (-7.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Real Murcia that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for San Fernando than the current prediction. (+6.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that San Fernando could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Real Murcia - San Fernando Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Garcia M. (G) 2. Ruiz J. 4. Mauro M. 6. Gonzalez A. 3. Baro M. 14. Leon P. 7. Gomez I. 21. Pina Tomas 10. Buron L. 17. Vega D. 11. Carrillo J.	1. Fuoli D. (G) 12. Lopez A. 4. Farrando M. 23. Ramirez J. 15. Ruiz V. 7. Biabiany J. 22. Davila Y. 18. Naveira U. 14. Fullana F. 21. Arroyo N. 17. Sanchez A.
Substitutes
28. Alexis L. 9. Bouzaig A. 33. Carmona M. 19. Carrion J. 22. Coto E. 29. Garcia A. (G) 24. Gianni Cassaro (G) 15. Lopez A. 16. Rofino V. G. 25. Rubio A. 26. Svidersky M.	11. Aquino D. 13. Arana E. (G) 16. Herrera C. 26. Herrera M. 8. Martin A. 19. Martinez P. 20. Masogo A. 10. Ramos D. 9. Ribeiro 3. Ruiz L.

Preview

This time we will watch a game between teams from the middle of a tournament table (ranked 12 and 14).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Murcia won 0.

One and the other team get a very uncertain game.

Murcia could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Murcia will have a mini benefit in this match.

Last 9 head-to-head matches Murcia won 1 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 12-17.

Including matches at home between the teams Murcia won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 4-5.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Real Murcia
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
27.01.24	Córdoba - Real Murcia	0:0 ✺
Club Friendly
23.01.24	Real Murcia - Polissya Zhytomyr	1:2 ✺
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
21.01.24	Real Murcia - Atlético Baleares	2:0 ✺
14.01.24	Melilla - Real Murcia	0:0 ✺
02.01.24	Real Murcia - Atlético Madrid B	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.7 TLWTT
- CD San Fernando
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
28.01.24	San Fernando - Algeciras	0:0 ✺
21.01.24	Ceuta - San Fernando	0:0 ✺
13.01.24	San Fernando - Atlético Sanluqueño	1:0 ✺
03.01.24	Ibiza - San Fernando	3:2 ✺
17.12.23	San Fernando - Alcoyano	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 TTWLL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
24.09.23	San Fernando - Real Murcia	1:1
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 4
02.02.20	San Fernando - Real Murcia	3:3
15.09.19	Real Murcia - San Fernando	1:2
24.02.19	San Fernando - Real Murcia	2:1
07.10.18	Real Murcia - San Fernando	1:1
11.03.18	Real Murcia - San Fernando	2:1
22.10.17	San Fernando - Real Murcia	3:2

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