Match Info

SPAIN: PRIMERA RFEF - GROUP 2 - ROUND 24

Date: 17 February 2024, Saturday


	Mérida AD		Castellón

	1	X	2
	4.75	3.4	1.65
	5	3.4	1.7	Watch
	5	3.3	1.69
	6.04	3.35	1.69
	5.37	3.54	1.64
	4.9	3.4	1.67
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.18 ↑ (3.74)	3.4 ↑ (3)	1.67 ↓ (1.93)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mérida AD
17.8%

Draw
27.1%

Castellón
55.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

23.9%

29.8%

46.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

23.2%

28.9%

47.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mérida AD has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Mérida AD's form might have worsened.

Castellón has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Castellón's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mérida AD than the current prediction. (+5.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Mérida AD, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Castellón than the current prediction. (-7.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Castellón, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Mérida AD - Castellón Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Juanpa (G) 14. Beneit R. 22. Bourdal T. 12. Falcon E. 2. Midon D. 16. Martin J. 23. Rodriguez D. 5. Acosta L. 15. Juanjo 11. Mizzian M. 9. Chuma	1. Crettaz G. (G) 12. Chirino D. 18. Indias I. 14. Gil O. (C) 10. Sanchez R. 11. Aurelio D. 23. Calavera J. 19. Villahermosa D. 33. Vertrouwd J. 4. Medunjanin H. 9. de Miguel J.
Substitutes
17. Alvaro J. 26. Dabo Gnako Y. 20. Elejalde I. 6. Gutierrez I. 8. Ndongo N. 3. Prada R. 10. Serra D. 13. Vicente D. (G)	5. Albert J. 13. Carney J. (G) 8. Gracia J. 20. Iosifov N. 27. Minana S. 7. Moyita S. 16. Sanchez M. 24. Schwake B. (G) 22. Suero I. 15. Traore M. 6. Veldwijk L.

Preview

Let's watch a game between leader and an outsider (ranked 16 in the zone Relegation and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ LaLiga2).

Recent matches Mérida AD is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Castellón is in super good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

In this match Castellón is a favorite.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Mérida AD won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1-5.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mérida AD
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
11.02.24	Real Madrid Castilla - Mérida AD	0:1 ✺
04.02.24	Antequera - Mérida AD	2:2 ✺
28.01.24	Mérida AD - Atlético Madrid B	0:0 ✺
20.01.24	Linares Deportivo - Mérida AD	2:0 ✺
14.01.24	Mérida AD - Granada B	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.5 WTTLW
- CD Castellón
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
11.02.24	Castellón - Ceuta	2:2 ✺
03.02.24	Atlético Madrid B - Castellón	1:1 ✺
28.01.24	Castellón - Antequera	4:1 ✺
21.01.24	Málaga - Castellón	0:1 ✺
13.01.24	Castellón - Algeciras	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.7 TTWWW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
30.09.23	Castellón - Mérida AD	5:1

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