Match Info

Gaucho 2 - Round 11

Date: 13 September 2026, Sunday


	Santa Cruz-RS		Lajeadense

	1	X	2
	1.61	3.25	5.25
	1.63	3.15	4.50
	1.56	3.22	5.07
	1.49	3.57	7.15	Watch
	1.54	3.15	5.00
	1.36	3.70	11.90
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.53 ↓ (1.8)	3.34 ↑ (2.95)	6.48 ↑ (3.95)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Santa Cruz-RS
59%

Draw
27.1%

Lajeadense
13.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.4%

29.5%

22.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51.6%

27.7%

20.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Santa Cruz-RS has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Santa Cruz-RS's performance.

Lajeadense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Lajeadense might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Santa Cruz-RS than the current prediction. (-7.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Santa Cruz-RS that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lajeadense than the current prediction. (+6.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Lajeadense could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Santa Cruz RS - Lajeadense Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

(3 - 1)

Preview

A leader and an outsider will face off in this match (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Gaucho 2 (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 16 in the zone Relegation ~ Gaucho 3).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Santa Cruz-RS won 3.

Recent performances by Santa Cruz-RS have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Lajeadense has been on a rough run of results (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Lajeadense may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Santa Cruz-RS is the clear favorite.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Santa Cruz-RS won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 11:8. (average 1.6:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Santa Cruz-RS won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 7:1. (average 2.3:0.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Santa Cruz-RS
Brazilian Campeonato Gaucho 2
10.09.26	Santa Cruz-RS - GE Bagé	1:0 ✺
06.09.26	Frederiquense - Santa Cruz-RS	0:0 ✺
02.09.26	Santa Cruz-RS - EC Pelotas	0:0 ✺
19.08.26	Passo Fundo - Santa Cruz-RS	2:0 ✺
16.08.26	Santa Cruz-RS - Gramadense	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.5 WTTLW
- CE Lajeadense
Brazilian Campeonato Gaucho 2
09.09.26	Lajeadense - Frederiquense	1:2 ✺
06.09.26	Brasil de Pelotas - Lajeadense	1:0 ✺
01.09.26	EC Guarani - Lajeadense	1:0 ✺
20.08.26	Gramadense - Lajeadense	1:1 ✺
16.08.26	Lajeadense - Passo Fundo	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 LLLTL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Gaucho 2
11.06.25	Lajeadense - Santa Cruz-RS	2:1
13.08.23	Santa Cruz-RS - Lajeadense	1:0
06.08.23	Lajeadense - Santa Cruz-RS	1:1
04.06.23	Lajeadense - Santa Cruz-RS	0:1
28.05.23	Santa Cruz-RS - Lajeadense	2:0
28.05.22	Lajeadense - Santa Cruz-RS	4:1
27.04.22	Santa Cruz-RS - Lajeadense	4:1

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