Match Info

Eliteserien - Round 4

Date: 27 April 2025, Sunday

Location: Sarpsborg Stadion (Sarpsborg)

Referee: Hansen T. (Nor)

Where to Watch on TV:


Norway	TV2 Play, TV2 Sport 1
World	Onefootball


	Sarpsborg 08		Strømsgodset

	1	X	2
	1.75	4	4.1	Watch
	1.77	3.8	4.1
	1.8	4	4.33	Watch
	1.8	3.95	4.49
	1.78	3.95	4.24	Watch
	1.75	3.9	4
	1.76	4.03	4.13	Watch
	1.8	4	4.33
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.78 ↓ (1.96)	3.95 ↓ (4.09)	4.22 ↑ (3.34)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sarpsborg 08
53.5%

Draw
24%

Strømsgodset
22.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.5%

23.2%

28.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.4%

23.2%

28.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sarpsborg 08 has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5%)

Strømsgodset has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Strømsgodset might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sarpsborg 08 than the current prediction. (-5.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Sarpsborg 08 that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Strømsgodset than the current prediction. (+6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Strømsgodset could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
80%	0%	20%

Sarpsborg 08 - Strømsgodset Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Sarpsborg (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 3 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH -0.75 - Sarpsborg (1.99) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Sarpsborg 08 will win (8 of 10 users predict this - 80%).
Confidence interval (95%): 55.21% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Sarpsborg (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ndiaye M. (G) 32. Wichne E. 2. Koch M. (C) 30. Tebo Uchenna F. 8. Christiansen S. 22. Halvorsen V. E. 6. Sher A. 11. Karlsbakk D. 10. Tangen H. 27. Orjasaeter S. 16. Carstensen F.	1. Bratveit P. (G) 5. Sormo B. 25. Taaje J. 71. Valsvik G. (C) 27. Dahl F. 10. Stengel H. 8. Krasniqi K. 17. Tomasson L. 16. Vilaseca Ardraa F. P. 21. Farji M. 77. Mehnert M.
Substitutes
13. Eriksson C. (G) 19. Gudjohnsen S. 29. Haheim-Elveseter M. 5. Odegaard M. 20. Reinhardsen P. 23. Sandberg N. 7. Sanyang A. 4. Skuseth N. 18. Vestergaard M.	15. Heredia-Randen A. 12. Lampinen-Skaug S. (G) 6. Marcello Silalahi S. A. 7. Moller N. 84. Skistad A. 39. Spiten-Nysaeter M. 4. Westerlund S.
Coaches
Michelsen C.	Isnes J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
19', 0 - 1, Farji M. ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 2)
51', 0 - 2, Dahl F. ⚽,
64', Carstensen F. ↓, Gudjohnsen S. ↑,
64', Halvorsen V. E. ↓, Reinhardsen P. ↑,
64', Tangen H. ↓, Haheim-Elveseter M. ↑,
69', Tomasson L. ↓, Moller N. ↑,
79', Farji M. ↓, Westerlund S. ↑,
83', Wichne E. ↓, Sandberg N. ↑,
85', 0 - 3, Sher A. (Own goal),
88', 1 - 3, Karlsbakk D. ⚽,
90', 2 - 3, Gudjohnsen S. ⚽, Sandberg N. (A),
90+2', Mehnert M. ↓, Marcello Silalahi S. A. ↑,

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Sarpsborg won 1.

Sarpsborg in the last match got series victories and it is in a super good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Strømsgodset is in unsatisfactory shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recently Sarpsborg have a series of guest games.

Sarpsborg will have a small advantage in this match.

There will not play in Sarpsborg: Hiim A. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Strømsgodset: Andersen E. (Knee Injury) Enersen O. (Knock)

There are questionable in Sarpsborg: Jeahze M. (Hip Injury)

There are questionable in Strømsgodset: Vilsvik L. (Injury)

Our prediction for today's Sarpsborg to win the game is with odds 1.94.

Last 20 head-to-head matches Sarpsborg won 7 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 9 matches and goals 30:35 (average 1.5:1.8).

Including matches at home between the teams Sarpsborg won 4 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 17:14 (average 1.7:1.4).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sarpsborg 08
Norwegian NM Cup
24.04.25	Gamle Oslo - Sarpsborg 08	1:6 ✺
Norwegian Eliteserien
21.04.25	KFUM-Kameratene Oslo - Sarpsborg 08	1:3 ✺
06.04.25	Sarpsborg 08 - Vålerenga	1:1 ✺
30.03.25	Molde - Sarpsborg 08	0:2 ✺
Club Friendly
22.03.25	Häcken - Sarpsborg 08	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 27 WWTWW
- Strømsgodset IF
Norwegian NM Cup
24.04.25	Mjøndalen - Strømsgodset	2:1 penalties ✺
Norwegian Eliteserien
21.04.25	Strømsgodset - Brann	1:2 ✺
10.04.25	Brann - Strømsgodset	2:1 ✺
06.04.25	Haugesund - Strømsgodset	0:5 ✺
29.03.25	Strømsgodset - Rosenborg	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.2 LLLWL

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
12.10.24	Sarpsborg 08 - Strømsgodset	1:0
Norwegian Eliteserien
21.09.24	Strømsgodset - Sarpsborg 08	2:1
26.05.24	Sarpsborg 08 - Strømsgodset	1:3
12.08.23	Sarpsborg 08 - Strømsgodset	1:2
09.07.23	Strømsgodset - Sarpsborg 08	5:2
Club Friendly
12.03.23	Strømsgodset - Sarpsborg 08	0:2
Norwegian Eliteserien
07.08.22	Strømsgodset - Sarpsborg 08	3:1

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