Match Info

Sergipano - Play Offs - Final

Date: 14 March 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Estadual Lourival Baptista (Batistao) (Aracaju)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	TV Record


	Sergipe		Confiança

	1	X	2
	2.98	2.58	2.58
	3.06	2.61	2.62	Watch
	3	2.5	2.63
	2.74	3.02	2.61
	2.86	3.1	2.34
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.93 ↑ (2.86)	2.76 ↓ (3.1)	2.56 ↑ (2.34)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 7.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sergipe
31.2%

Draw
33.1%

Confiança
35.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.8%

29.3%

38.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.4%

29.8%

38.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sergipe has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)

Confiança has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sergipe than the current prediction. (+1.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Confiança than the current prediction. (+2.5%)

Sergipe - Confiança Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Filipe Santos (G) 11. Andrey 3. Carioca 10. Juliano Fabro 7. Lucas Mineiro 5. Matheus Neris (C) 8. Paulo Henrique 2. Rafael Luiz 4. Victor Massaia 6. Wilker V. 9. Ze Artur	1. Rafael Pascoal (G) 11. Andrey Quintino 7. Danielzinho 4. Eduardo Moura 10. Fabricio 8. Guilherme Nunes 6. Kelvyn 3. Lucas Cunha 13. Renilson 99. Sassa (C) 2. Valdir Junior
Substitutes
23. Betinho 15. Biro Biro 20. Felipe Valdivia 21. Joao Varolo 16. Joao Victor 18. Kaylan 19. Marlon Martins 12. Naldo (G) 13. Neto Sergipano 14. Rodrigo Rosa 17. Thierry 25. Venicius	14. Adryan 18. Bruno Silva 15. Gustavo Nicola 21. Iago 5. Lorran 19. Maikon Aquino 16. Marcelo 22. Mateus Ludke 12. Matheus Silva (G) 17. Renanzinho 9. Wendel 20. Weriton

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
12', Wilker V. 🟨,
24', Sassa 🟨,
24', Ze Artur 🟨,
27', Victor Massaia 🟨,
38', Danielzinho 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Andrey Quintino ↓, Gustavo Nicola ↑,
46', Guilherme Nunes ↓, Iago ↑,
51', 1 - 0, Paulo Henrique ⚽,
55', Fabricio ↓, Wendel ↑,
58', Lucas Cunha 🟨,
67', Ze Artur ↓, Venicius ↑,
71', Lucas Mineiro ↓, Betinho ↑,
78', Paulo Henrique ↓, Joao Victor ↑,
78', Juliano Fabro ↓, Felipe Valdivia ↑,
81', Danielzinho ↓, Maikon Aquino ↑,
83', Guilherme Nunes 🟨,
83', 🟨,
88', Maikon Aquino 🟨,
90+2', Carioca 🟥,
90+6', 🟨,

Preview

First leg result: 1-1. Second leg.

One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Sergipano (Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Sergipano (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Sergipe won 1.

Sergipe has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Confiança is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Sergipe may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Confiança has had a series of home games.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Sergipe won 4 matches, drew 8 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 15:19. (average 0.8:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Sergipe won 3 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 8:6. (average 0.9:0.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CS Sergipe
Brazilian Campeonato Sergipano
07.03.26	Confiança - Sergipe	1:1 ✺
01.03.26	Sergipe - América de Propriá	2:1 penalties ✺
26.02.26	América de Propriá - Sergipe	1:1 ✺
14.02.26	Lagarto - Sergipe	1:0 ✺
10.02.26	Sergipe - Atlético Gloriense	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 TWTLW
- AD Confiança Aracaju
Copa do Brasil
11.03.26	Confiança - Tombense	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Sergipano
07.03.26	Confiança - Sergipe	1:1 ✺
28.02.26	Itabaiana - Confiança	0:2 ✺
25.02.26	Confiança - Itabaiana	1:2 ✺
21.02.26	Confiança - Guarany de Porto da Folha	1:0 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 WTWLW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Sergipano
07.03.26	Confiança - Sergipe	1:1
31.01.26	Sergipe - Confiança	1:0
09.02.25	Confiança - Sergipe	2:1
13.04.24	Confiança - Sergipe	1:0 penalties
10.04.24	Sergipe - Confiança	1:1
04.02.24	Sergipe - Confiança	2:1
12.02.23	Confiança - Sergipe	1:0

Sergipe - Confiança: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide