Match Info

Copa do Nordeste - Round 3

Date: 9 April 2026, Thursday

Location: Estadio Etelvino Mendonca (Itabaiana)


	Itabaiana		Confiança

	1	X	2
	2.4	3.2	2.63	Watch
	2.45	2.92	2.78	Watch
	2.61	2.97	2.92
	2.53	3.05	2.83	Watch
	2.5	2.75	2.8
	2.53	2.78	2.79	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.5 ↑ (2.4)	2.95 ↓ (3.1)	2.79 ↑ (2.69)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Itabaiana
36.4%

Draw
30.9%

Confiança
32.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.5%

29%

33.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.6%

28.2%

32.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Itabaiana has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

Confiança has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Itabaiana than the current prediction. (+2.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Confiança than the current prediction. (-0.1%)

Itabaiana - Confiança Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - Confiança (1.83) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Confiança (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Jefferson (C) 8. Caio Felipe 5. Gustavo Crecci 4. Gustavo Fagundes 7. Leilson 9. Luan Silva 3. Lucao 11. Pedro Igor 10. Renatinho 2. Ricardo Cerqueira 6. Tito	1. Rafael Pascoal (C) 21. Breiner C. 4. Eduardo Moura 8. Gabriel Zeca 3. Lucas Cunha 6. Matheus Juliao 7. PF 10. PK 13. Renilson 2. Valdir Junior 9. Wendel
Substitutes
17. Balde R. 13. Betao 21. Elimar 19. Everton Kanela 15. Fabricio Moura 12. Geaze (G) 14. Gustavo Cintra 22. Isaque 18. Karl 23. Lucas Bessa 20. Rodrigo Alves 16. Tarcisio	11. Andrey Quintino 20. Danielzinho 18. Fabricio 22. Iago 14. Icaro 17. Joao Pedro 5. Lorran 19. Maikon Aquino 15. Marcelo 12. Matheus Silva (G) 99. Sassa 16. Weriton

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
6', Valdir Junior ↓, Weriton ↑,
45+4', 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
49', Ricardo Cerqueira 🟨,
60', Breiner C. ↓, Andrey Quintino ↑,
62', 🟨,
62', Leilson 🟨,
63', Pedro Igor ↓, Elimar ↑,
70', Caio Felipe ↓, Karl ↑,
70', Leilson ↓, Rodrigo Alves ↑,
70', 0 - 1, ⚽,
72', Wendel ↓, Sassa ↑,
79', Ricardo Cerqueira ↓, Lucas Bessa ↑,
79', Gustavo Crecci ↓, Everton Kanela ↑,
90+2', 🟨,

Preview

First leg result: 2-1. Aggregate: 2-3. Second leg.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Itabaiana won 1.

Itabaiana is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Confiança's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Confiança may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Itabaiana won 6 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 18:20. (average 0.9:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Itabaiana won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 8:12. (average 0.8:1.2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AO de Itabaiana
Brazilian Serie C
06.04.26	Santa Cruz Recife - Itabaiana	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
25.03.26	Itabaiana - CRB Maceio	0:0 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Sergipano
08.03.26	Itabaiana - América de Propriá	1:0 ✺
Copa do Brasil
04.03.26	Manauara - Itabaiana	3:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Sergipano
28.02.26	Itabaiana - Confiança	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 LTWLL
- AD Confiança Aracaju
Brazilian Serie C
05.04.26	Confiança - Amazonas	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
29.03.26	Confiança - Fluminense Piaui	2:0 ✺
26.03.26	Sousa - Confiança	4:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
18.03.26	Vila Nova - Confiança	0:1 penalties ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Sergipano
14.03.26	Sergipe - Confiança	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.3 LWLWL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Sergipano
28.02.26	Itabaiana - Confiança	0:2
25.02.26	Confiança - Itabaiana	1:2
08.02.26	Confiança - Itabaiana	1:0
Brazilian Serie C
12.07.25	Itabaiana - Confiança	0:0
Brazilian Campeonato Sergipano
29.03.25	Confiança - Itabaiana	1:1
22.03.25	Itabaiana - Confiança	1:2
23.02.25	Confiança - Itabaiana	0:0

Itabaiana - Confiança: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide