Match Info

BRAZIL: Serie D - Round 10

Date: 26 June 2024, Wednesday


	Sergipe		Itabaiana

	1	X	2
	3.5	3.1	1.95
	3.75	3.2	1.9
	3.31	3.14	1.9
	3.31	3.14	1.91
	3.65	3.08	2.01
	3.75	3.2	1.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.55 ↑ (2.64)	3.14 ↑ (2.95)	1.93 ↓ (2.64)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 9.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sergipe
25.2%

Draw
28.4%

Itabaiana
46.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.5%

30.9%

34.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.4%

31.7%

33.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sergipe has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Sergipe's form might have worsened.

Itabaiana has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Itabaiana's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sergipe than the current prediction. (+10.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Sergipe, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Itabaiana than the current prediction. (-12.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Itabaiana, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Sergipe - Itabaiana Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Itabaiana will win (votes: 10 - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Itabaiana: 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (2 - 0)
62', 1 - 0, Rafael Grampola ⚽,
67', 2 - 0, Arthur Santos ⚽,

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 8 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie D (Play Offs: 1/16~finals)).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Sergipe won 3.

Sergipe is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Itabaiana is in a first-class shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Itabaiana will have a poor advantage in this game.

Last 20 head-to-head matches Sergipe won 7 matches, drawn 6 matches, lost 7 matches and goals 21-17.

Including matches at home between the teams Sergipe won 5 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 11-8.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CS Sergipe
Brazilian Serie D
15.06.24	Clube Sociedade Esportiva - Sergipe	3:2 ✺
12.06.24	Sergipe - Juazeirense	0:1 ✺
08.06.24	Juazeirense - Sergipe	1:0 ✺
02.06.24	Sergipe - Clube Sociedade Esportiva	2:0 ✺
26.05.24	Itabaiana - Sergipe	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 LLLWT
- AO de Itabaiana
Brazilian Serie D
16.06.24	Itabaiana - Jacuipense	2:0 ✺
12.06.24	Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense - Itabaiana	0:2 ✺
09.06.24	Itabaiana - Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense	3:0 ✺
01.06.24	Jacuipense - Itabaiana	1:0 ✺
26.05.24	Itabaiana - Sergipe	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.5 WWWLT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie D
26.05.24	Itabaiana - Sergipe	0:0
Brazilian Campeonato Sergipano
28.01.24	Itabaiana - Sergipe	0:2
08.04.23	Sergipe - Itabaiana	2:1
02.04.23	Itabaiana - Sergipe	2:1
26.02.23	Sergipe - Itabaiana	2:1
02.04.22	Itabaiana - Sergipe	1:0
30.03.22	Sergipe - Itabaiana	2:0

Sergipe - Itabaiana: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide