Match Info

Date: 6 March 2021, Saturday


	Sertanense		Leiria

	1	X	2
	5.25	3.2	1.67
	4.7	3.6	1.57
	6.4	3.15	1.57
	5.55	3.37	1.75
	4.96	3.5	1.65
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.37 ↑ (4.26)	3.36 ↑ (3.34)	1.64 ↓ (1.78)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sertanense
17%

Draw
27.2%

Leiria
55.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

21.4%

27.3%

51.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

17.2%

21.9%

63.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sertanense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.4%)

Leiria has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sertanense than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Leiria than the current prediction. (+8.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Leiria could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

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Preview

Recent matches Sertanense is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Leiria in the last match got series victories and it is in a very good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Recently Leiria have a series of home games.

In this match Leiria is a favorite.

Last 4 head-to-head matches Sertanense won 0 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 3-5.

Including matches at home between the teams Sertanense won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 0-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sertanense
Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
28.02.21	Alcains - Sertanense	0:2 ✺
20.02.21	Sertanense - Oleiros	1:1 ✺
16.02.21	Sertanense - Oliveira Hospital	1:1 ✺
12.02.21	SB Castelo Branco - Sertanense	4:3 ✺
07.02.21	Sertanense - Carapinheirense	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 WTTLT
- UD Leiria
Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
28.02.21	Leiria - Vitória de Sernache	1:0 ✺
22.02.21	Leiria - Marinhense	1:1 ✺
15.02.21	Leiria - Condeixa	1:0 ✺
07.02.21	Leiria - Alcains	3:1 ✺
03.02.21	Leiria - Sertanense	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 WTWWW

Latest Head to Head

Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
03.02.21	Leiria - Sertanense	1:0
10.11.19	Leiria - Sertanense	1:1
22.10.17	Leiria - Sertanense	2:2
09.04.17	Sertanense - Leiria	0:1

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