Match Info

Campeonato de Portugal - Group C - Round 26

Date: 13 April 2025, Sunday


	SB Castelo Branco		Sertanense

	1	X	2
	1.18	6	12
	1.34	4.3	8.2
	1.44	3.9	7.71
	1.34	4.3	8.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.33 ↓ (1.5)	4.63 ↑ (3.75)	9.03 ↑ (5.25)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 8.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

SB Castelo Branco
69.8%

Draw
20%

Sertanense
10.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

59.3%

23.7%

16.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

62.6%

22.5%

16%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

SB Castelo Branco has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in SB Castelo Branco's performance.

Sertanense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Sertanense might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for SB Castelo Branco than the current prediction. (-7.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with SB Castelo Branco that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sertanense than the current prediction. (+5.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Sertanense could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

SB Castelo Branco - Sertanense Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 0)
75', 1 - 0, ⚽,

Preview

You will have a great opportunity to watch a game between two neighbours in a tournament table (ranked 10 in the zone Relegation and 12 in the zone Relegation).

Sertanense is Relegated to

Last 5 head-to-head matches SB Castelo Branco won 1.

Recent matches SB Castelo Branco is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Sertanense is in unsatisfactory shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

In this match SB Castelo Branco is the unquestionable favorite.

Last 13 head-to-head matches SB Castelo Branco won 2 matches, drawn 8 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 11:14 (average 0.8:1.1).

Including matches at home between the teams SB Castelo Branco won 1 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 6:9 (average 1:1.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SB Castelo Branco
Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
06.04.25	União de Coimbra - SB Castelo Branco	0:2 ✺
29.03.25	SB Castelo Branco - Marinhense	0:0 ✺
16.03.25	Peniche - SB Castelo Branco	1:1 ✺
09.03.25	SB Castelo Branco - Pombal	1:3 ✺
02.03.25	SB Castelo Branco - Alcains	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10 WTTLW
- Sertanense
Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
06.04.25	Sertanense - Alcains	3:1 ✺
29.03.25	Os Marialvas - Sertanense	2:1 ✺
16.03.25	Sertanense - Mortágua	0:2 ✺
09.03.25	Arronches Benfica - Sertanense	1:0 ✺
02.03.25	Sertanense - Elvas	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.1 WLLLT

Latest Head to Head

Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
05.01.25	Sertanense - SB Castelo Branco	0:0
24.03.24	SB Castelo Branco - Sertanense	1:1
10.12.23	Sertanense - SB Castelo Branco	1:2
Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
26.02.23	Sertanense - SB Castelo Branco	1:1
13.11.22	SB Castelo Branco - Sertanense	1:1
06.03.22	Sertanense - SB Castelo Branco	1:1
12.12.21	SB Castelo Branco - Sertanense	0:3

SB Castelo Branco - Sertanense: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide