Match Info

Premier League - Round 9

Date: 4 January 2026, Sunday

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	Azam Sports 3


	Shabana		Nairobi United

	1	X	2
	2.02	2.68	4.05
	1.96	2.82	4.37	Watch
	2.2	2.63	3.5
	2.06	2.83	4.12	Watch
	2.25	2.75	3.33
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.1 ↓ (2.76)	2.74 ↓ (3.03)	3.87 ↑ (2.45)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.50

The best margin for this event is 8.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Shabana
43.4%

Draw
33.2%

Nairobi United
23.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.9%

30%

37.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.6%

29.4%

36.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Shabana has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Shabana's performance.

Nairobi United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-13.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Nairobi United might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Shabana than the current prediction. (-9.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Shabana that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nairobi United than the current prediction. (+12.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Nairobi United could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	25%	25%

Shabana - Nairobi United Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Shabana will win (votes: 2 - 50%). Nairobi United will win (votes: 1 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Nairobi United (1.79) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Nairobi United (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
21', 0 - 1, Omala D. ⚽,
45', 0 - 2, Karamor M. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
58', 0 - 3, ⚽,
90+1', 1 - 3, ⚽,

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 4 and 13).

Shabana is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Nairobi United's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Shabana may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Shabana is considered a favorite.

In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
12	Shabana	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
17	Nairobi United	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0

Last Results with these Odds

Shabana - the odds 2.76 are the expected chance of winning is 32.92%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Shabana FC
Kenyan Premier League
20.12.25	Kenya CB - Shabana	1:3 ✺
17.12.25	Shabana - Mara Sugar	0:0 ✺
12.12.25	Kakamega Homeboyz - Shabana	2:2 ✺
06.12.25	Shabana - Bidco United	1:0 ✺
30.11.25	Police FC - Shabana	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.9 WTTWW
- Nairobi United
Kenyan Premier League
21.12.25	Nairobi United - Gor Mahia	1:1 ✺
17.12.25	Tusker - Nairobi United	0:1 ✺
12.12.25	Nairobi United - Muranga Seal	1:1 ✺
08.12.25	Posta Rangers - Nairobi United	2:0 ✺
04.12.25	Nairobi United - Mathare United	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.1 TWTLL

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