Match Info

1. Lig - Round 27

Date: 23 February 2026, Monday

Location: Yeni 4 Eylül Stadyumu (Sivas)

Referee: Hasova G. (Tur)

Where to Watch on TV:


Asia	TOD
Turkey	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2, Tabii, TRT Spor


	Sivasspor		Sakaryaspor

	1	X	2
	1.57	3.7	5.25	Watch
	1.53	3.9	4.8
	1.61	3.82	4.75	Watch
	1.58	4.05	5.15
	1.57	4.31	5.02	Watch
	1.62	3.6	5
	1.61	3.8	5.39	Watch
	1.55	4	5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.58 ↓ (1.64)	3.9 ↑ (3.71)	5.05 ↑ (4.77)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sivasspor
58.2%

Draw
23.6%

Sakaryaspor
18.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56.1%

24.7%

19.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.4%

23.7%

18.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sivasspor has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

Sakaryaspor has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sivasspor than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sakaryaspor than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
64.3%	28.6%	7.1%

Sivasspor - Sakaryaspor Predictions

Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Sivasspor will win (votes: 9 - 64.3%). Sakaryaspor will win (votes: 1 - 7.1%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 28.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Sivasspor: 39.2% – 89.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Sakaryaspor (2.27) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +1 - Sakaryaspor (1.80) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Sakaryaspor (3.89) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Sakaryaspor (votes: 3 - 75%). Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Bakirbas G. (G) 26. Yildirim M. 2. Appindangoye A. 3. Erdogan O. 5. Basyigit E. 80. Celik C. 15. Fidan K. 8. Charisis C. 12. Malle A. 9. Manaj R. (C) 27. Ethemi V.	29. Szumski J. (G) 2. Ruan Teixeira 86. Bekaroglu B. 24. Dursun S. 88. Erkin C. (C) 44. Vukovic J. 10. Pena S. 7. Demir M. 19. Soro I. 27. Owusu 91. Bostan M.
Substitutes
22. Akkan G. (G) 92. Ala S. 72. Avramovski D. 11. Badji A. 14. Boke T. 20. Celik M. 19. Gokay E. 17. Kesgin K. 10. Okoronkwo J. 6. Yigiter O.	1. Dadakdeniz A. (G) 14. Demir E. 85. Fofana M. 17. Karatas H. 43. Kocaman A. 16. Sen K. 3. Terzi E. 21. Yavuz S. 99. Yildirim P. 9. Zwolinski L.
Coaches
Tasdemir I.	Dalci M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 1)
6', 1 - 0, Ethemi V. ⚽, Manaj R. (A),
16', 2 - 0, Erdogan O. ⚽,
21', 3 - 0, Ethemi V. ⚽, Charisis C. (A),
26', 3 - 1, Dursun S. ⚽, Erkin C. (A),
35', Bekaroglu B. 🟨,
40', Erkin C. 🟨,
42', Dursun S. 🟨,
43', Appindangoye A. 🟨,
45+1', Erkin C. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Dursun S. ↓, Kocaman A. ↑,
46', Soro I. ↓, Terzi E. ↑,
46', Bostan M. ↓, Yildirim P. ↑,
46', Malle A. ↓, Okoronkwo J. ↑,
62', Charisis C. 🟨,
63', Demir M. ↓, Demir E. ↑,
63', Pena S. ↓, Fofana M. ↑,
69', Vukovic J. 🟨,
74', Fidan K. ↓, Celik M. ↑,
82', Terzi E. 🟨,
85', Celik C. ↓, Avramovski D. ↑,
90', Ethemi V. ↓, Kesgin K. ↑,
90', Charisis C. ↓, Gokay E. ↑,
90+2', 4 - 1, Manaj R. ⚽,

Preview

A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 14 and 18 in the zone Relegation).

Sivasspor has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Sakaryaspor is going through a series of losses (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Sivasspor may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Sivasspor is seen as the favorite.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Sivasspor won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 0:0.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
15	Sivasspor	8	1	5	2	9:11	-2	8

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sivasspor
Turkish First League
19.02.26	Adana Demirspor - Sivasspor	1:1 ✺
14.02.26	Sivasspor - Vanspor	3:3 ✺
07.02.26	Sarıyer - Sivasspor	1:0 ✺
01.02.26	Sivasspor - Pendikspor	0:0 ✺
25.01.26	Sivasspor - Amed SK	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.6 TTLTT
- Sakaryaspor
Turkish First League
19.02.26	Sakaryaspor - Pendikspor	0:2 ✺
15.02.26	Amed SK - Sakaryaspor	1:1 ✺
09.02.26	Sakaryaspor - Erzurumspor	0:1 ✺
01.02.26	Boluspor - Sakaryaspor	2:0 ✺
26.01.26	Sakaryaspor - Bodrumspor	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.6 LTLLL

Latest Head to Head

Turkish First League
29.09.25	Sakaryaspor - Sivasspor	0:0

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