Match Info

POLAND: DIVISION 1 - ROUND 31

Date: 12 May 2023, Friday

Location: KS Skra Częstochowa (Częstochowa)

Referee: Sylwestrzak D. (Pol)


	Skra Częstochowa		Górnik Łęczna

	1	X	2
	2.5	3.1	2.75
	2.5	3	2.7
	2.75	3.1	2.5
	2.63	3.17	2.87
	2.55	2.88	2.7
	2.56	3.13	2.74
	2.9	3.2	2.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.63 ↓ (3.18)	3.08 ↓ (3.16)	2.67 ↑ (2.19)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Skra Częstochowa
35.2%

Draw
30%

Górnik Łęczna
34.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28.9%

29.1%

41.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.4%

28.6%

41.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Skra Częstochowa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Skra Częstochowa's performance.

Górnik Łęczna has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Górnik Łęczna might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Skra Częstochowa than the current prediction. (-5.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Skra Częstochowa that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Górnik Łęczna than the current prediction. (+6.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Górnik Łęczna could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	50%	16.7%

Skra Częstochowa - Górnik Łęczna Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Skra Częstochowa will win (votes: 4 - 33.3%). Górnik Łęczna will win (votes: 2 - 16.7%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 50%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 21.7% – 78.3%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

No spectators.

Super game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 16 in the zone Relegation ~ Division 2 and 13).

Two teams are playing changeable.

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both teams.

Last 5 head-to-head matches Skra Częstochowa won 0 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 2-6.

Including matches at home between the teams Skra Częstochowa won 0 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 0-0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- KS Skra Częstochowa
Polish Division 1
07.05.23	Skra Częstochowa - GKS Tychy	0:1 ✺
28.04.23	GKS Katowice - Skra Częstochowa	0:1 ✺
22.04.23	Skra Częstochowa - Odra Opole	1:1 ✺
16.04.23	Arka Gdynia - Skra Częstochowa	0:1 ✺
08.04.23	Skra Częstochowa - Resovia Rzeszów	0:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 27.7 LWTWL
- Górnik Łęczna
Polish Division 1
06.05.23	Górnik Łęczna - Podbeskidzie Bielsko-Biała	3:3 ✺
29.04.23	GKS Tychy - Górnik Łęczna	2:1 ✺
23.04.23	Górnik Łęczna - Termalica Nieciecza	2:1 ✺
15.04.23	GKS Katowice - Górnik Łęczna	2:0 ✺
11.04.23	Górnik Łęczna - ŁKS Łódź	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.5 TLWLT

Latest Head to Head

Polish Division 1
15.10.22	Górnik Łęczna - Skra Częstochowa	3:0
Polish Division 2
15.07.20	Skra Częstochowa - Górnik Łęczna	0:0
26.10.19	Górnik Łęczna - Skra Częstochowa	1:1
17.11.18	Skra Częstochowa - Górnik Łęczna	0:0
28.07.18	Górnik Łęczna - Skra Częstochowa	2:1

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