Match Info

Nakotnes liga - Round 8

Date: 13 May 2026, Wednesday


	Smiltene		Super Nova 2

	1	X	2
	4.25	4.15	1.58
	4.27	4.36	1.59	Watch
	4	3.9	1.6
	4.36	4.2	1.58
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.22 ↑ (4.14)	4.15 ↓ (4.23)	1.59 ↓ (1.61)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 9.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Smiltene
21.4%

Draw
21.7%

Super Nova 2
56.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

22%

21.5%

56.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

21.5%

21%

57.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Smiltene has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)

Super Nova 2 has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Smiltene than the current prediction. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Super Nova 2 than the current prediction. (+1%)

Smiltene - Super Nova 2 Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 2)
63', 0 - 1, Rosa F. ⚽,
90', 0 - 2, Ositis K. ⚽,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 12 and 6).

Smiltene has been struggling in recent matches (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Super Nova 2 has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Recently, Super Nova 2 has had a series of home games.

In this match, Super Nova 2 is seen as the favorite.

Recently, the teams have not faced each other.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
9	Super Nova 2	21	6	7	8	28:32	-4	25
11	FK Smiltene	21	4	4	13	29:57	-28	16

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FK Smiltene BJSS
Latvian 1 Liga
09.05.26	Riga Mariners - Smiltene	1:0 ✺
03.05.26	Smiltene - JDFS Alberts	2:3 ✺
25.04.26	Metta - Smiltene	8:0 ✺
18.04.26	Smiltene - Leevon PPK	0:0 ✺
12.04.26	Valmiera - Smiltene	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.4 LLLTL
- Super Nova 2
Latvian 1 Liga
09.05.26	Super Nova 2 - Rēzekne	1:0 ✺
02.05.26	Super Nova 2 - Mārupe	0:1 ✺
26.04.26	Super Nova 2 - Leevon PPK	2:3 ✺
19.04.26	Skanstes - Super Nova 2	1:1 ✺
11.04.26	Super Nova 2 - JFK Ventspils	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 WLLTW

Smiltene - Super Nova 2: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide