Match Info

NPL Victoria - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 6 September 2026, Sunday

Location: Lakeside Stadium (Melbourne)


	South Melbourne		Heidelberg United

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.10	3.40	3.00
	2.05	3.3	3
	2.11	3.61	3.15
	2.09	3.64	3.16	Watch
	2.04	3.55	3.1
	2.06	3.4	3.11	Watch
	2.1	3.4	3.05
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.08 ↓ (2.35)	3.47 ↑ (3.35)	3.08 ↑ (2.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

South Melbourne
44%

Draw
26.3%

Heidelberg United
29.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.9%

26.6%

35.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.2%

25.7%

34.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

South Melbourne has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in South Melbourne's performance.

Heidelberg United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Heidelberg United might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for South Melbourne than the current prediction. (-4.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Heidelberg United than the current prediction. (+4.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
83.3%	0%	16.7%

South Melbourne - Heidelberg United Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. South Melbourne will win (votes: 5 - 83.3%). Heidelberg United will win (votes: 1 - 16.7%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. South Melbourne (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
3', 1 - 0, ⚽,
14', 1 - 1, ⚽,
20', 2 - 1, ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

South Melbourne is Qualified for NPL Victoria (Play Offs Quarter~finals)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, South Melbourne won 1.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

South Melbourne may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

South Melbourne will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, South Melbourne won 6 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 12 matches, and goals 23:35. (average 1.2:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, South Melbourne won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 6 matches, and goals 10:18. (average 1:1.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- South Melbourne FC
Australian NPL Victoria
29.08.26	Caroline Springs George Cross - South Melbourne	1:0 ✺
Australian Cup
26.08.26	Preston Lions - South Melbourne	1:2 ✺
Australian NPL Victoria
23.08.26	South Melbourne - Heidelberg United	1:2 ✺
15.08.26	Melbourne City Youth - South Melbourne	0:3 ✺
Australian Cup
09.08.26	South Melbourne - Fremantle City	4:3 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.1 LWLWW
- Heidelberg United
Australian NPL Victoria
29.08.26	Heidelberg United - Bentleigh Greens	2:0 ✺
23.08.26	South Melbourne - Heidelberg United	1:2 ✺
15.08.26	Heidelberg United - Hume City	4:5 ✺
Australian Cup
12.08.26	North Sunshine Eagles - Heidelberg United	1:0 penalties ✺
Australian NPL Victoria
01.08.26	Avondale - Heidelberg United	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 WWLLL

Latest Head to Head

Australian NPL Victoria
23.08.26	South Melbourne - Heidelberg United	1:2
08.05.26	Heidelberg United - South Melbourne	4:0
Australian Championship
28.11.25	South Melbourne - Heidelberg United	1:0
Australian NPL Victoria
26.07.25	Heidelberg United - South Melbourne	1:1
13.04.25	South Melbourne - Heidelberg United	0:3
16.06.24	Heidelberg United - South Melbourne	1:0
08.03.24	South Melbourne - Heidelberg United	1:1

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