Match Info

USL Super League Women - Play Offs - Semi-finals

Date: 24 May 2026, Sunday 🏁 Finished

Location: Hodges Stadium (Jacksonville, FL) 🌤️ ...

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Brazil	18:00	Disney+
North Central America	—	Disney+ Caribbean
Usa	17:00	Peacock


	Sporting Jacksonville		Carolina Ascent

	1	X	2
	1.98	3.3	3.5	Watch
	1.93	3.42	3.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.96 ↑ (1.92)	3.36 ↓ (3.5)	3.48 ↓ (3.54)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 9.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sporting Jacksonville
46.6%

Draw
27.1%

Carolina Ascent
26.2%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

47.8%

26.2%

25.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.3%

27%

25.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sporting Jacksonville has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)

Carolina Ascent has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sporting Jacksonville than the current prediction. (+2.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Carolina Ascent than the current prediction. (-1.1%)

Sporting Jacksonville - Carolina Ascent Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Parks K. (G) 21. Illig M. 5. Brown G. 24. Phillpotts G. 9. Boyan A. 3. Boman S. 8. Jones S. (C) 10. Hughes M. 19. Puerta A. 17. DeSmit B. 27. Kenton P.	15. Martinez S. (G) 13. Merrick A. 5. Butler J. 19. Nally M. 7. Aguilera J. (C) 9. Corbin M. 28. Nabet L. 23. Parker R. 20. Groom S. 17. Lussi T. 31. George M.
Substitutes
11. Fernandez A. 1. Gerstenberg J. (G) 6. Hunt J. 7. Pennock J. 2. Roberts P. 33. Smekrud K. 15. Sullivan K.	18. Coleman A. 4. Cook A. 2. Martinez B. 1. McClelland M. (G) 24. Morris E. 8. Moxley E. 14. Porter T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
6', 0 - 1, George M. ⚽, Parker R. (A),
45', Corbin M. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
61', Boyan A. ↓, Roberts P. ↑,
62', Parker R. ↓, Coleman A. ↑,
62', Corbin M. ↓, Porter T. ↑,
76', Illig M. ↓, Pennock J. ↑,
76', Puerta A. ↓, Hunt J. ↑,
79', Nabet L. ↓, Morris E. ↑,
90+2', Hughes M. 🟨,

Preview

Recent performances by Sporting Jax have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Carolina is on a winning streak and currently in very good shape (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Sporting Jax is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Sporting Jax won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 8:8. (average 2:2).

Including home matches between the teams, Sporting Jax won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:2. (average 1.5:1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Carolina Ascent W	10	7	2	1	17:6	11	23
2	Sporting Jax W	9	4	3	2	19:14	5	15

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sporting Jacksonville Women
USL Super League Women
16.05.26	Carolina Ascent - Sporting Jacksonville	3:1 ✺
06.05.26	DC Power - Sporting Jacksonville	0:1 ✺
03.05.26	Sporting Jacksonville - Brooklyn	2:1 ✺
25.04.26	Sporting Jacksonville - Lexington	1:2 ✺
19.04.26	Spokane Zephyr - Sporting Jacksonville	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 LWWLL
- Carolina Ascent
USL Super League Women
16.05.26	Carolina Ascent - Sporting Jacksonville	3:1 ✺
09.05.26	Fort Lauderdale United - Carolina Ascent	0:3 ✺
25.04.26	Tampa Bay Sun - Carolina Ascent	1:2 ✺
19.04.26	Dallas Trinity - Carolina Ascent	0:1 ✺
11.04.26	Carolina Ascent - Lexington	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.3 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

USL Super League Women
16.05.26	Carolina Ascent - Sporting Jacksonville	3:1
31.01.26	Sporting Jacksonville - Carolina Ascent	1:0
28.09.25	Carolina Ascent - Sporting Jacksonville	3:4
13.09.25	Sporting Jacksonville - Carolina Ascent	2:2

Sporting Jacksonville - Carolina Ascent