Match Info

Regionalliga North - Round 21

Date: 29 November 2025, Saturday

Where to Watch on TV:


Germany	Nordfv


	St. Pauli II		Lübeck

	1	X	2
	2.58	3.6	2.38
	2.76	3.6	2.37
	2.58	3.44	2.3
	2.66	3.4	2.42
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.65 ↑ (2.2)	3.51 ↓ (3.63)	2.37 ↓ (2.78)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 6.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

St. Pauli II
34.8%

Draw
26.2%

Lübeck
38.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.7%

25.2%

33%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.8%

25.3%

32.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

St. Pauli II has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that St. Pauli II's form might have worsened.

Lübeck has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Lübeck's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for St. Pauli II than the current prediction. (+7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for St. Pauli II, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lübeck than the current prediction. (-6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Lübeck, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

St. Pauli II - Lübeck Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
7', 0 - 1, Lehnfeld M. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
54', 1 - 1, Ahlstrand E. ⚽,
90+2', Melenivskyi Y. 🟨,

Preview

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation and 12).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, St. Pauli II won 2.

St. Pauli II is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Lübeck has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Lübeck may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 18 head-to-head matches, St. Pauli II won 3 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 17:33. (average 0.9:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, St. Pauli II won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 5 matches, and goals 10:15. (average 1.1:1.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- St. Pauli II
German Regionalliga North
22.11.25	Werder Bremen II - St. Pauli II	2:1 ✺
09.11.25	Drochtersen Assel - St. Pauli II	2:1 ✺
02.11.25	St. Pauli II - Meppen	1:1 ✺
28.10.25	Lübeck - St. Pauli II	1:1 ✺
19.10.25	St. Pauli II - Altona	2:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.9 LLTTL
- Vfb Lübeck
German Regionalliga North
15.11.25	Lübeck - Meppen	1:5 ✺
09.11.25	Bremer SV - Lübeck	2:3 ✺
05.11.25	Hamburger II - Lübeck	2:2 ✺
01.11.25	SC Weiche-08 - Lübeck	2:2 ✺
28.10.25	Lübeck - St. Pauli II	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.3 LWTTT

Latest Head to Head

German Regionalliga North
28.10.25	Lübeck - St. Pauli II	1:1
29.10.24	St. Pauli II - Lübeck	1:3
19.03.23	St. Pauli II - Lübeck	2:1
18.09.22	Lübeck - St. Pauli II	1:1
16.10.21	St. Pauli II - Lübeck	1:0
13.08.21	Lübeck - St. Pauli II	3:0
14.02.20	St. Pauli II - Lübeck	1:2

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