Match Info

NPL Premier Division - Round 10

Date: 16 September 2025, Tuesday


	Stockton Town		Guiseley

	1	X	2
	2.1	3.4	2.92
	1.01	16.16	25.00	Watch
	2.18	3.34	2.93
	2.12	3.5	3
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.85 ↓ (2.02)	6.6 ↑ (3.75)	8.46 ↑ (2.95)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 9.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Stockton Town
66.7%

Draw
18.7%

Guiseley
14.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45%

24.2%

30.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.4%

24%

30.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Stockton Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+21.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Stockton Town's performance.

Guiseley has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-16.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Guiseley might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Stockton Town than the current prediction. (-21.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Stockton Town that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Guiseley than the current prediction. (+15.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Guiseley could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Stockton Town - Guiseley Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
26', 1 - 0, Hayes K. (Pen),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
56', 2 - 0, Scott J. ⚽,

Preview

Get ready for a battle between the top and the middle of the table (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ NPL Premier Division (Play Offs: ) and 14).

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Guiseley may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Stockton Town could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Stockton Town won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:2. (average 1.7:0.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Stockton Town won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:1. (average 2:0.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Stockton Town
English NPL Premier Division
09.09.25	Whitby Town - Stockton Town	1:1 ✺
06.09.25	Stockton Town - Stocksbridge Park Steels	3:2 ✺
25.08.25	Stockton Town - Morpeth Town	2:0 ✺
23.08.25	Rushall Olympic - Stockton Town	2:2 ✺
19.08.25	Gainsborough Trinity - Stockton Town	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 TWWTL
- Guiseley
English FA Cup
13.09.25	South Shields - Guiseley	2:1 ✺
English NPL Premier Division
09.09.25	Guiseley - Prescot Cables	3:1 ✺
06.09.25	Leek Town - Guiseley	4:0 ✺
English FA Cup
30.08.25	Warrington Rylands - Guiseley	1:4 ✺
English NPL Premier Division
25.08.25	Guiseley - Stocksbridge Park Steels	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.5 LWLWT

Latest Head to Head

English NPL Premier Division
29.04.25	Stockton Town - Guiseley	1:0
21.12.24	Guiseley - Stockton Town	1:1
14.08.24	Stockton Town - Guiseley	3:1

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