Match Info
NPL South Australia - Round 10Date: 16 May 2026, SaturdayLocation: Karinya Reserve (Eden Hills)
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 |
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Sturt Lions |
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Croydon |
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1 |
X |
2 |
|
 |
2.25 |
3.75 |
2.52 |
 Watch |
 |
2.35 |
3.98 |
2.54 |
|
 |
2.38 |
3.82 |
2.58 |
|
 |
2.3 |
3.6 |
2.45 |
|
 |
2.38 |
3.89 |
2.54 |
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Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.33 ↑
(2.16) |
3.81 ↓
(3.84) |
2.53 ↓
(2.75) |
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- The most likely Over/Under: 3.50
- The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by
#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+ Current Win Probability
Sturt Lions
39.4% | Draw
24.2% | Croydon
36.4% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Sturt Lions has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)Croydon has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.9%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sturt Lions than the current prediction. (+4.8%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Croydon than the current prediction. (-4.1%)Sturt Lions - Croydon Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1 
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Key Events of the Match
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 45', (Penalty Awarded),
- 2nd Half (0 - 2)
- 48', 0 - 1, Kato Y. ⚽,
- 52', 0 - 2, Styles E. ⚽,
Preview
Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ NPL South Australia (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 9).In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Sturt Lions won 0.Sturt Lions is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).Croydon has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins โ 2).Sturt Lions may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times. In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Sturt Lions won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 12:18. (average 1.3:2).Including home matches between the teams, Sturt Lions won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 6:8. (average 1.2:1.6).
Form
✺ - easy match;
✺ - difficult match;
Latest Head to Head
| Australian NPL South Australian | | | 20.05.23 | Sturt Lions - Croydon | 1:1 | | 24.02.23 | Croydon - Sturt Lions | 5:2 | | 09.07.22 | Croydon - Sturt Lions | 2:1 | | 09.04.22 | Sturt Lions - Croydon | 0:4 | | 10.07.21 | Sturt Lions - Croydon | 1:1 | | 10.04.21 | Croydon - Sturt Lions | 1:2 | | Club Friendly | | | 17.01.20 | Sturt Lions - Croydon | 2:1 |
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