Match Info

3rd Division - Round 8

Date: 19 September 2026, Saturday


	Sundby		Holstebro

	1	X	2
	2.40	3.40	2.37
	2.45	3.5	2.36
	2.4	3.58	2.53
	2.46	3.65	2.46	Watch
	2.35	3.5	2.5
	2.57	3.77	2.41
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.44 ↓ (2.83)	3.57 ↓ (3.77)	2.44 ↑ (2.14)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sundby
37.3%

Draw
25.5%

Holstebro
37.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.5%

24.4%

43%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.5%

23.6%

44.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sundby has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.8%)

Holstebro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Holstebro might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sundby than the current prediction. (-5.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Sundby that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Holstebro than the current prediction. (+7.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Holstebro could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Sundby - Holstebro Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (2 - 0)
66', 1 - 0, ⚽,
81', 2 - 0, ⚽,

Preview

Crucial home points are at stake for a lower-table team looking to climb out of danger (ranked 10th in the 3rd Division (Relegation Group: ) and 5th in the Promotion ~ 3rd Division (Promotion Group: )).

The recent form of both competitors has been marked by mixed results.

Holstebro could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

In the last 4 head-to-head meetings, Sundby has recorded 0 wins, 1 draw, and 3 losses, with a goal aggregate of 3:11 (averaging 0.8:2.8 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Sundby against this opponent, the record stands at 0 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses, with 1:6 goals (averaging 0.5:3 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Holstebro	10	4	1	5	16:22	-6	13
9	Sundby	10	3	1	6	14:16	-2	10

Last Results with these Odds

Sundby - the odds 2.83 are the expected chance of winning is 32.54%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sundby BK
Danish 3 Division
13.09.26	Helsingør - Sundby	2:1 ✺
Danish Landspokal Cup
10.09.26	Sundby - Midtjylland	0:7 ✺
Danish 3 Division
05.09.26	Sundby - ASA Aarhus	1:0 ✺
29.08.26	Ringsted - Sundby	2:0 ✺
Danish Landspokal Cup
25.08.26	Frederikssund - Sundby	1:2 ET ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 LLWLW
- Holstebro BK
Danish 3 Division
13.09.26	Holstebro - BK Frem	3:2 ✺
05.09.26	Holstebro - Vanløse	1:2 ✺
28.08.26	ASA Aarhus - Holstebro	4:0 ✺
22.08.26	Holstebro - Helsingør	2:1 ✺
15.08.26	Ringsted - Holstebro	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.7 WLLWW

Latest Head to Head

Danish 3 Division
24.05.25	Holstebro - Sundby	4:1
26.04.25	Sundby - Holstebro	0:3
22.03.25	Sundby - Holstebro	1:3
17.08.24	Holstebro - Sundby	1:1

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