Match Info

Premiership - Round 26

Date: 20 May 2025, Tuesday

Location: Lucas Masterpieces Moripe Stadium (Pretoria)


	Supersport United		Orlando Pirates

	1	X	2
	3.6	2.9	2.1
	3.7	2.95	2.12
	3.79	2.99	2.21
	3.61	2.98	2.1	Watch
	4.2	3.1	1.91
	3.92	2.91	2.07	Watch
	3.7	2.95	2.12
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.79 ↓ (8.5)	2.97 ↓ (3.6)	2.09 ↑ (1.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.50

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Supersport United
24.5%

Draw
31.2%

Orlando Pirates
44.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

11.1%

26.2%

62.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

10.7%

25.2%

65.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Supersport United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+13.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Supersport United's performance.

Orlando Pirates has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-18.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Orlando Pirates might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Supersport United than the current prediction. (-13.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Supersport United that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Orlando Pirates than the current prediction. (+21.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Orlando Pirates could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	0%	75%

Supersport United - Orlando Pirates Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Supersport United will win (votes: 3 - 25%). Orlando Pirates will win (votes: 9 - 75%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Orlando Pirates: 50.5% – 99.5%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Supersport United (votes: 4 - 66.7%). Orlando Pirates (votes: 2 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC, 2nd Half - Supersport United (1.52) (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

BTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTS, 1st Half - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Supersport United (2.76) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Supersport United (2.64) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 12 Selected Experts predict this event. Supersport United (votes: 10 - 83.3%). Orlando Pirates (votes: 2 - 16.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Mbanjwa T. (G) 2. Mobbie N. 4. Sanoka P. 3. Hlatshwayo T. (C) 25. Ayer Boya K. 35. Maboe L. 8. Ndlovu S. 24. Lakay L. 29. Baliti A. 38. Moralo G. 27. Saile C.	40. Dladla S. (G) 26. Shandu B. 5. Sibisi N. (C) 44. Mbokazi M. 7. Hotto D. 47. Selepe S. 18. Dlamini K. 33. Nkota M. 28. Maswanganyi P. 16. Mbatha T. 19. Mabasa T.
Substitutes
11. Dzvukamanja T. 20. Goss R. (G) 7. Grobler B. 36. Matodzi T. 33. Ndebele S. 32. Nurkovic S. 18. Poggenpoel B. 15. Pule M. 26. Quaicoe E.	24. Chaine S. (G) 46. Dansin C. 25. Kimvuidi K. 30. Madiba Y. 32. Moleleki T. E. 42. Radiopane B. 21. Tshobeni A. 3. van Rooyen D. 27. Xoki T.
Coaches
Hunt G.	Ncikazi M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 1)
62', Dlamini K. ↓, Kimvuidi K. ↑,
64', Ayer Boya K. ↓, Grobler B. ↑,
65', Kimvuidi K. 🟨,
71', Saile C. ↓, Pule M. ↑,
72', 0 - 1, Nkota M. ⚽, Kimvuidi K. (A),
77', Mabasa T. ↓, Radiopane B. ↑,
84', Lakay L. ↓, Nurkovic S. ↑,
84', Maboe L. ↓, Quaicoe E. ↑,
87', Mbatha T. 🟨,
88', Maswanganyi P. ↓, Xoki T. ↑,
89', Grobler B. 🟨,
90', Shandu B. 🟨,

Preview

Let's watch a game between leader and an outsider (ranked 15 in the zone Premiership (Promotion Group: ) and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ CAF Champions League).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Supersport United won 1.

Supersport United is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Orlando Pirates is in a first-rate shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Supersport United could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Orlando Pirates is a favorite.

Last 20 head-to-head matches Supersport United won 6 matches, drawn 6 matches, lost 8 matches and goals 27:26 (average 1.4:1.3).

Including matches at home between the teams Supersport United won 5 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 16:6 (average 1.8:0.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Supersport United
South African Premier Soccer League
17.05.25	Stellenbosch - Supersport United	2:1 ✺
03.05.25	Supersport United - Chippa United	2:0 ✺
26.04.25	Polokwane City - Supersport United	1:1 ✺
05.04.25	Marumo Gallants - Supersport United	1:1 ✺
30.03.25	Supersport United - Cape Town City	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.8 LWTTT
- Orlando Pirates
South African Premier Soccer League
17.05.25	Orlando Pirates - TS Galaxy	1:1 ✺
13.05.25	Orlando Pirates - Lamontville Golden Arrows	3:0 ✺
South African Nedbank Cup
10.05.25	Kaizer Chiefs - Orlando Pirates	2:1 ✺
South African Premier Soccer League
06.05.25	Lamontville Golden Arrows - Orlando Pirates	1:2 ✺
03.05.25	Kaizer Chiefs - Orlando Pirates	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 TWLWW

Latest Head to Head

South African Nedbank Cup
08.03.25	Supersport United - Orlando Pirates	2:3 penalties
South African Premier Soccer League
22.10.24	Orlando Pirates - Supersport United	2:0
South African MTN 8 Cup
03.08.24	Orlando Pirates - Supersport United	3:1 ET
South African Premier Soccer League
25.05.24	Orlando Pirates - Supersport United	1:1
23.12.23	Supersport United - Orlando Pirates	3:1
18.03.23	Orlando Pirates - Supersport United	1:0
21.08.22	Supersport United - Orlando Pirates	0:0

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