Match Info

Division 3 - Group 2 - Round 22

Date: 27 September 2025, Saturday


	Surnadal IL		Nardo

	1	X	2
	4.63	6.68	1.33
	6.86	5.8	1.28
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.75 ↑ (4.07)	6.24 ↑ (5.92)	1.31 ↓ (1.46)

The most likely Over/Under: 4.25

The best margin for this event is 9.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Surnadal IL
15.8%

Draw
14.6%

Nardo
69.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

22.3%

15.3%

62.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

21.9%

15%

63.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Surnadal IL has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Surnadal IL's form might have worsened.

Nardo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Nardo's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Surnadal IL than the current prediction. (+6.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Surnadal IL, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nardo than the current prediction. (-6.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Nardo, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Surnadal IL - Nardo Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:3

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
39', 0 - 1, Rian H. ⚽,
2nd Half (4 - 0)
49', 1 - 1, Dahle-Fiske S. ⚽,
57', 2 - 1, Kvande S. H. ⚽,
78', 3 - 1, Melkild P. ⚽,
90+1', 4 - 1, Settemsdal F. ⚽,

Preview

An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 13 in the zone Relegation and 7).

Surnadal has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Nardo has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

In this match, Nardo is a strong favorite.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Surnadal won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 1:11. (average 0.5:5.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Surnadal IL
Norwegian Division 3 - Group 2
20.09.25	Byåsen - Surnadal IL	1:1 ✺
13.09.25	Volda - Surnadal IL	5:0 ✺
06.09.25	Surnadal IL - Trygg Lade	1:1 ✺
30.08.25	Kvik - Surnadal IL	5:1 ✺
24.08.25	Surnadal IL - Rosenborg II	4:6 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 23.5 TLTLL
- Nardo FK
Norwegian Division 3 - Group 2
22.09.25	Nardo - Rosenborg II	1:1 ✺
14.09.25	Aalesunds 2 - Nardo	4:1 ✺
06.09.25	Nardo - Ranheim 2	3:1 ✺
30.08.25	Nardo - Spjelkavik	2:2 ✺
23.08.25	Tiller - Nardo	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 TLWTW

Latest Head to Head

Norwegian Division 3 - Group 2
28.06.25	Nardo - Surnadal IL	6:0
Norwegian Division 3 - Group 4
20.10.24	Nardo - Surnadal IL	5:1

Surnadal IL - Nardo: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide