Match Info

Euro Women - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 17 July 2025, Thursday

Location: Letzigrund Stadion (Zürich)

Referee: De Aza M. H. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	Azam Sports 4, Sporty TV, SuperSport Football, SuperSport Maximo 360
Albania	RTSH Sport
Argentina	Disney+
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 1, beIN Sports MENA English 1
Australia	Optus Sport
Austria	ORF 1
Belgium	RTBF Tipik, VRT Canvas
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	BHT 1
Bulgaria	BNT 3
Canada	TSN 1, TSN 4
Croatia	HRT 2
Czech-republic	CT sport
Denmark	TV3, Viaplay
Finland	YLE Areena, YLE TV2
France	TMC
Georgia	1TV
Germany	DAZN 1 Bar Deutsch, DAZN Deutsch
Greece	ERT 2
Hungary	M4 Sport
Ireland	RTE 2, RTE Player
Malta	TVM Sport+
Mexico	Disney+, ESPN
Netherlands	NPO 1
North-macedonia	MRT 1
Norway	NRK 1, NRK TV
Peru	Disney+
Poland	TVP Sport
Portugal	Sport TV1
Serbia	RTS 2
Slovakia	STVR Sport
Spain	RTVE Play
Sweden	SVT 1, SVT Play, Viaplay
Switzerland	Play RTS, Play RTS, RTS 2, RTS 2, SRF 2, SRF 2
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 1, Suspilne Sport
United-kingdom	BBC iPlayer, BBC One, BBC Sport app, BBC Sport
Uruguay	Disney+
Venezuela	Disney+


	Sweden W		England W

	1	X	2
	3.25	3.2	2.3
	3.25	3.3	2.15
	3.2	3.25	2.25
	3.35	3.2	2.42
	1.75	3.61	4.65	Watch
	3.4	3.3	2.05
	3.3	3.4	2.31
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.07 ↓ (3.5)	3.32 ↓ (3.42)	2.59 ↑ (2.08)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sweden W
32.2%

Draw
29.7%

England W
38.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

27%

27.6%

45.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

26.4%

28.2%

46.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sweden W has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Sweden W's performance.

England W has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and England W might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sweden W than the current prediction. (-5.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Sweden W that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for England W than the current prediction. (+8.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that England W could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
16.1%	35.5%	48.4%

Sweden W - England W Predictions

Users Predictions: 30 users predict this event. Sweden will win (votes: 5 - 16.7%). England will win (votes: 15 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 10 - 33.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for England: 32.1% – 67.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. Sweden (votes: 2 - 22.2%). England (votes: 2 - 22.2%). Tie (votes: 5 - 55.6%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2, 1st Half - under (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

EH +1 - Sweden (1.68) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Sweden (1.60) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

DNB - Sweden (2.21) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0 - England (1.65) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

TQ, OT - Sweden (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 15 Selected Experts predict this event. Sweden (votes: 7 - 46.7%). England (votes: 3 - 20%). Tie (votes: 5 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Falk J. (G) Hacken 4. Lundkvist H. San Diego Wave 14. Bjorn N. Chelsea 6. Eriksson M. Bayern Munich 2. Andersson J. Linkoping 16. Angeldal F. Real Madrid 9. Asllani K. (C) London City Lionesses 15. Zigiotti Olme J. Bayern Munich 19. Kaneryd J. Chelsea 11. Blackstenius S. Arsenal 18. Rolfo F. Barcelona	1. Hampton H. (G) Chelsea 2. Bronze L. Chelsea 6. Williamson L. (C) Arsenal 16. Carter J. Gotham FC 5. Greenwood A. Manchester City 10. Toone E. Manchester United 4. Walsh K. Chelsea 8. Stanway G. Bayern Munich 7. James L. Chelsea 23. Russo A. Arsenal 11. Hemp L. Manchester City
Substitutes
20. Bennison H. Juventus 23. Blomqvist R. 21. Enblom T. (G) Valerenga 22. Holmberg S. Hammarby 1. Holmgren E. (G) Levante 8. Hurtig L. Fiorentina 13. Ilestedt A. Arsenal 10. Jakobsson S. London City Lionesses 7. Janogy M. Fiorentina 5. Nilden A. Tottenham 3. Sembrant L. Bayern Munich 17. Wangerheim E. Hammarby	17. Agyemang M. 19. Beever-Jones A. Chelsea 3. Charles N. Chelsea 14. Clinton G. Manchester United 21. Keating K. (G) Manchester City 18. Kelly C. Manchester City 12. Le Tissier M. Manchester United 9. Mead B. Arsenal 13. Moorhouse A. (G) Orlando Pride 15. Morgan E. Washington Spirit 20. Park J. Manchester City 22. Wubben-Moy C. Arsenal
Coaches
Gerhardsson P.	Wiegman S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
2', 1 - 0, Asllani K. ⚽, Blackstenius S. (A),
25', 2 - 0, Blackstenius S. ⚽, Zigiotti Olme J. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 2)
61', Lundkvist H. ↓, Holmberg S. ↑,
70', Toone E. ↓, Mead B. ↑,
70', Carter J. ↓, Morgan E. ↑,
70', Stanway G. ↓, Agyemang M. ↑,
77', Asllani K. ↓, Hurtig L. ↑,
78', Rolfo F. ↓, Janogy M. ↑,
78', Hemp L. ↓, Kelly C. ↑,
79', 2 - 1, Bronze L. ⚽, Kelly C. (A),
81', 2 - 2, Agyemang M. ⚽,
87', Agyemang M. 🟨,
89', Zigiotti Olme J. 🟨,
90', Kelly C. 🟨,
Extra Time (0 - 0)
104', Walsh K. ↓, Clinton G. ↑,
106', Kaneryd J. ↓, Jakobsson S. ↑,
106', Andersson J. ↓, Nilden A. ↑,
106', Williamson L. ↓, Charles N. ↑,
117', Blackstenius S. ↓, Blomqvist R. ↑,
Penalties (2 - 3)
1, Russo A. (Pen),
1, Angeldal F. (Pen),
2, James L. (Pen),
2, Zigiotti Olme J. (Pen),
3, Mead B. (Pen),
3, Eriksson M. (Pen),
4, Greenwood A. (Pen),
4, Bjorn N. (Pen),
5, Kelly C. (Pen),
5, Falk J. (Pen),
6, Clinton G. (Pen),
6, Jakobsson S. (Pen),
7, Bronze L. (Pen),
7, Holmberg S. (Pen),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Sweden won 2.

Sweden has been on a winning streak and is in great shape (last 5 games: 5 wins).

In recent matches, England has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

England is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Sweden won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 9:11. (average 1.1:1.4).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sweden W
UEFA Euro Women
12.07.25	Sweden W - Germany W	4:1 ✺
08.07.25	Poland W - Sweden W	0:3 ✺
04.07.25	Denmark W - Sweden W	0:1 ✺
Friendly International Women
26.06.25	Norway W - Sweden W	0:2 ✺
UEFA Nations League Women
03.06.25	Sweden W - Denmark W	6:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11 WWWWW
- England W
UEFA Euro Women
13.07.25	England W - Wales W	6:1 ✺
09.07.25	England W - Netherlands W	4:0 ✺
05.07.25	France W - England W	2:1 ✺
Friendly International Women
29.06.25	England W - Jamaica W	7:0 ✺
UEFA Nations League Women
03.06.25	Spain W - England W	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 WWLWL

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Euro Women
16.07.24	Sweden W - England W	0:0
05.04.24	England W - Sweden W	1:1
26.07.22	England W - Sweden W	4:0
FIFA World Cup Women
06.07.19	England W - Sweden W	1:2
Friendly International Women
11.11.18	England W - Sweden W	0:2
24.01.17	England W - Sweden W	0:0
03.08.14	England W - Sweden W	4:0

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