Match Info

Serie D - Round 3

Date: 18 April 2026, Saturday

Location: Estádio 19 de Outubro (Ijuí)


	São Luiz		Santa Catarina

	1	X	2
	2.6	3.05	2.84
	2.37	2.97	3.05	Watch
	2.45	2.88	2.7
	2.57	3.15	2.76
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.5 ↑ (2.12)	3.01 ↑ (2.88)	2.84 ↓ (3.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

São Luiz
36.9%

Draw
30.6%

Santa Catarina
32.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43%

31.7%

25.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.6%

30.6%

24.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

São Luiz has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that São Luiz's form might have worsened.

Santa Catarina has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Santa Catarina's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for São Luiz than the current prediction. (+7.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for São Luiz, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Santa Catarina than the current prediction. (-8.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Santa Catarina, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

São Luiz - Santa Catarina Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 2)
12', 1 - 0, Valber Junior ⚽,
17', 1 - 1, Mendes ⚽,
28', 2 - 1, Valber Junior ⚽,
30', 2 - 2, Renan ⚽,
45', 3 - 2, Brandao ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
56', 4 - 2, Brandao ⚽,
59', 4 - 3, Alex Goncalves ⚽,
83', 4 - 4, Alex Goncalves ⚽,

Preview

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

São Luiz is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

The teams have not played against each other recently.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- EC São Luiz
Brazilian Serie D
11.04.26	São Luiz - FC Cascavel	0:0 ✺
04.04.26	Joinville - São Luiz	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Gaucho
06.03.26	Novo Hamburgo - São Luiz	1:1 ✺
02.03.26	São Luiz - Novo Hamburgo	1:0 ✺
Copa do Brasil
25.02.26	São Luiz - Maranhão	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 TLTWL
- Santa Catarina FC
Brazilian Serie D
11.04.26	Santa Catarina - Cianorte	1:0 ✺
05.04.26	FC Cascavel - Santa Catarina	1:0 ✺
Copa do Brasil
11.03.26	Santa Catarina - Jacuipense	0:1 ✺
04.03.26	Santa Catarina - Cuiabá	2:1 penalties ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense
21.02.26	Avaí - Santa Catarina	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 WLLWL

São Luiz - Santa Catarina: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide