Match Info

Serie D - Round 1

Date: 4 April 2026, Saturday

Location: Arena Joinville (Joinville)


	Joinville		São Luiz

	1	X	2
	2.14	2.71	3.92
	2.16	2.75	3.85	Watch
	2.05	2.7	3.6
	2.2	3.01	3.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.14 ↑ (2.01)	2.79 ↓ (2.83)	3.73 ↓ (4.12)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Joinville
42.8%

Draw
32.7%

São Luiz
24.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.5%

32.3%

22.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.7%

31.7%

22.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Joinville has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)

São Luiz has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Joinville than the current prediction. (+1.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for São Luiz than the current prediction. (-1.9%)

Joinville - São Luiz Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
2', 1 - 0, Erverson ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
90+3', 2 - 0, Rigley ⚽,

Preview

Joinville is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

São Luiz has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Joinville is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Joinville won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 6:3. (average 1.5:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Joinville won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:1. (average 2:0.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Joinville
Copa do Brasil
10.03.26	Joinville - São Bernardo	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense
06.03.26	Náutico Marcílio Dias - Joinville	2:0 ✺
27.02.26	Joinville - Figueirense	0:3 ✺
Copa do Brasil
24.02.26	Joinville - CS Alagoano	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense
19.02.26	Carlos Renaux - Joinville	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 LLLWL
- EC São Luiz
Brazilian Campeonato Gaucho
06.03.26	Novo Hamburgo - São Luiz	1:1 ✺
02.03.26	São Luiz - Novo Hamburgo	1:0 ✺
Copa do Brasil
25.02.26	São Luiz - Maranhão	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Gaucho
21.02.26	Caxias - São Luiz	0:2 penalties ✺
16.02.26	São Luiz - Caxias	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.8 TWLWL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie D
14.06.25	Joinville - São Luiz	2:1
26.05.25	São Luiz - Joinville	0:1
14.11.20	São Luiz - Joinville	2:1
01.10.20	Joinville - São Luiz	2:0

Joinville - São Luiz: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide