Match Info

Catarinense - 5th-8th places - Play Offs - Semi-finals

Date: 21 February 2026, Saturday

Location: Ressacada (Florianópolis)


	Avaí		Santa Catarina

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.52	3.55	4.8
	1.79	3.4	4.58	Watch
	1.62	3.3	5
	1.64	3.55	5.32
	1.52	3.5	6.33
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.62 ↑ (1.47)	3.46 ↓ (3.58)	5.21 ↓ (7.21)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 7.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Avaí
56.2%

Draw
26.3%

Santa Catarina
17.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

62%

25.4%

12.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

64.3%

24.5%

12.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Avaí has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Avaí's form might have worsened.

Santa Catarina has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Avaí than the current prediction. (+8.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Avaí, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Santa Catarina than the current prediction. (-5.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Santa Catarina, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Avaí - Santa Catarina Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +1 - Santa Catarina (1.74) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Santa Catarina (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
41. Leo Aragao (G) 3. Allyson 9. Avenatti F. 55. Bruno Baldini 6. Cabral N. 14. Daniel Penha 4. Gabriel Simples 10. Jean Lucas 8. Luiz Henrique 43. Thayllon 77. Ze Ricardo (C)	1. Marcos (G) 21. Beto 7. Bruninho 5. Bruno Negueba 17. Henrique Lordelo 2. Juninho 15. Kaue Oliveira 30. Luan 10. Mendes 14. Piaui 13. Renan
Substitutes
20. Gaspar 15. Guilherme Aquino 18. Hyan 46. Joao Bezerra 50. Joao Maistro 90. Kevin 21. Otavio Passos (G) 25. Paulo Vitor 7. Rafael Bilu 19. Vinicius Gugel 57. Walace 2. Wallison	29. Adriel 20. Alex Goncalves 18. Brener 6. Coruja 3. DVD 16. Galdino 27. Gui Nascimento 12. Iago Henrique 31. Renan Nunes 23. Vinicius Machado (G) 9. Yhago

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
4', 1 - 0, Daniel Penha ⚽,
10', 2 - 0, Daniel Penha ⚽,
34', Bruno Negueba ↓, Renan Nunes ↑,
45', Piaui 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
62', Thayllon ↓, Rafael Bilu ↑,
62', Jean Lucas ↓, Paulo Vitor ↑,
62', Allyson 🟨,
67', 3 - 0, Rafael Bilu ⚽,
70', Allyson ↓, Joao Maistro ↑,
70', Avenatti F. ↓, Walace ↑,
71', Bruninho ↓, Gui Nascimento ↑,
71', Luan ↓, Galdino ↑,
72', Mendes ↓, Yhago ↑,
72', Piaui ↓, Brener ↑,
76', Daniel Penha ↓, Hyan ↑,
87', Gabriel Simples 🟨,
90+3', Gui Nascimento 🟨,

Preview

First leg result: 2-1. Second leg.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Santa Catarina may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Santa Catarina has had a series of home games.

In this match, Avaí is considered a favorite.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Avaí won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 6:5. (average 1.5:1.3).

Including home match between the teams, Avaí won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Avaí
Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense
14.02.26	Santa Catarina - Avaí	1:2 ✺
08.02.26	Avaí - Camboriú	0:2 penalties ✺
31.01.26	Camboriú - Avaí	1:2 ✺
25.01.26	Santa Catarina - Avaí	3:1 ✺
21.01.26	Avaí - Chapecoense	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.4 WLWLT
- Santa Catarina FC
Copa do Brasil
18.02.26	Santa Catarina - IAPE	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense
14.02.26	Santa Catarina - Avaí	1:2 ✺
07.02.26	Santa Catarina - Barra Santa Catarina	0:1 ✺
31.01.26	Barra Santa Catarina - Santa Catarina	1:1 ✺
25.01.26	Santa Catarina - Avaí	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.3 WLLTW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense
14.02.26	Santa Catarina - Avaí	1:2
25.01.26	Santa Catarina - Avaí	3:1
08.03.25	Santa Catarina - Avaí	1:2 penalties
15.01.25	Avaí - Santa Catarina	1:0

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