Match Info

Date: 22 May 2021, Saturday 🏁 Finished


	São Martinho		Montalegre

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São Martinho
41.4%

Draw
30%

Montalegre
28.6%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

37.5%

28.2%

34.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

26.8%

20.2%

48%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

São Martinho has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.9%)

Montalegre has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Montalegre might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for São Martinho than the current prediction. (-14.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with São Martinho that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Montalegre than the current prediction. (+19.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Montalegre could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

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Recent matches São Martinho is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Montalegre is in super good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

São Martinho will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 5 head-to-head matches São Martinho won 3 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 8-8.

Including matches at home between the teams São Martinho won 3 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 7-4.

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Associação Recreativa de São Martinho
Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
16.05.21	São Martinho - Felgueiras	2:2 ✺
09.05.21	São Martinho - Merelinense	0:1 ✺
02.05.21	Montalegre - São Martinho	2:0 ✺
23.04.21	Felgueiras - São Martinho	0:1 ✺
10.04.21	Pevidem - São Martinho	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.1 TLLWT
- CDC Montalegre
Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
16.05.21	Merelinense - Montalegre	0:1 ✺
09.05.21	Felgueiras - Montalegre	0:0 ✺
02.05.21	Montalegre - São Martinho	2:0 ✺
23.04.21	Montalegre - Merelinense	0:2 ✺
11.04.21	Vidago - Montalegre	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.2 WTWLW

Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
02.05.21	Montalegre - São Martinho	2:0
16.02.20	São Martinho - Montalegre	1:0
10.02.19	São Martinho - Montalegre	5:4
25.03.18	Montalegre - São Martinho	2:1
26.11.17	São Martinho - Montalegre	1:0

São Martinho - Montalegre