Match Info

Ekstraklasa - Round 3

Date: 2 August 2025, Saturday

Location: Termalica Bruk-Bet Nieciecza (Nieciecza)

Referee: Rzucidlo P. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Premium 2, Arena Sport 2
Croatia	Arena Sport 3, MAXtv To Go
Poland	CANAL+ Sport 3, Ekstraklasa TV
Serbia	Arena Premium 4
Ukraine	Sport 1, Sport 3
World	Sport 1 Baltic


	Termalica Nieciecza		Pogoń Szczecin

	1	X	2
	2.63	3.4	2.6	Watch
	2.9	3.6	2.2
	2.72	3.4	2.35	Watch
	2.69	3.64	2.57
	1.52	4.05	6.28	Watch
	2.9	3.4	2.25
	2.74	3.41	2.5	Watch
	2.9	3.6	2.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.63 ↓ (2.95)	3.56 ↑ (3.18)	2.88 ↑ (2.36)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Termalica Nieciecza
37.7%

Draw
27.8%

Pogoń Szczecin
34.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.5%

29.2%

39.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31%

29.7%

39.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Termalica Nieciecza has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Termalica Nieciecza's performance.

Pogoń Szczecin has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Termalica Nieciecza than the current prediction. (-6.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Termalica Nieciecza that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Pogoń Szczecin than the current prediction. (+5.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Pogoń Szczecin could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
27.3%	36.4%	36.4%

Termalica Nieciecza - Pogoń Szczecin Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Termalica will win (votes: 3 - 27.3%). Pogoń Szczecin will win (votes: 4 - 36.4%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 36.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Pogoń Szczecin: 8% – 64.8%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - Pogoń Szczecin (1.64) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Pogoń Szczecin (1.68) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Pogoń Szczecin (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
99. Mleczko M. (G) 29. Isik G. 2. Kopacz B. 3. Kasperkiewicz A. 27. Boboc R. 13. Kubica K. 28. Ambrosiewicz M. 6. Wolski M. 53. Trubeha A. (C) 7. Fassbender M. 9. Jimenez J.	31. Kaminski K. (G) 28. Wahlqvist L. 22. Loncar D. 2. Huja M. 32. Koutris L. 8. Ulvestad F. 18. Mukairu P. 14. Pozo J. 10. Przyborek A. 11. Grosicki K. (C) 20. Paryzek P.
Substitutes
17. Biniek D. 1. Chovan A. (G) 35. Deisadze D. 21. Hilbrycht D. 8. Kurzawa R. 5. Masoero L. 86. Strzalek I. 55. Thiago Dombroski	6. Bieganski J. 91. Bochniarz K. (G) 77. Cojocaru V. (G) 7. Juwara M. 13. Keramitsis D. 99. Kostorz K. 9. Koulouris E. 4. Leo Borges 17. Lis J. 19. Ndiaye M. 35. Wojciechowski M.
Coaches
Brosz M.	Kolendowicz R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
1', Grosicki K. 🟨,
18', 1 - 0, Kasperkiewicz A. ⚽, Ambrosiewicz M. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Koutris L. ↓, Leo Borges ↑,
46', Przyborek A. ↓, Ndiaye M. ↑,
46', Paryzek P. ↓, Juwara M. ↑,
64', Jimenez J. ↓, Strzalek I. ↑,
65', Trubeha A. ↓, Kurzawa R. ↑,
68', 1 - 1, Grosicki K. ⚽, Ulvestad F. (A),
68', Wahlqvist L. ↓, Lis J. ↑,
69', Wolski M. ↓, Hilbrycht D. ↑,
77', Loncar D. ↓, Keramitsis D. ↑,
82', Fassbender M. ↓, Deisadze D. ↑,
82', Boboc R. ↓, Masoero L. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Termalica won 1.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Pogoń Szczecin may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

There will not play in Pogoń Szczecin: Renyer (Inactive)

There are questionable in Termalica: Zapolnik K. (Injury)

There are questionable in Pogoń Szczecin: Cojocaru V. (Injury)

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Termalica won 2 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 13:21. (average 1.3:2.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Termalica won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 6:8. (average 1.5:2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Termalica Nieciecza
Polish Ekstraklasa
25.07.25	Cracovia - Termalica Nieciecza	2:0 ✺
18.07.25	Jagiellonia Białystok - Termalica Nieciecza	0:4 ✺
Club Friendly
02.07.25	Termalica Nieciecza - ŁKS Łódź	0:0 ✺
28.06.25	Raków Częstochowa - Termalica Nieciecza	1:3 ✺
25.06.25	Termalica Nieciecza - Wisła Kraków	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 20 LWTWT
- Pogoń Szczecin
Polish Ekstraklasa
26.07.25	Pogoń Szczecin - Motor Lublin	4:1 ✺
Club Friendly
21.07.25	Pogoń Szczecin - Błękitni Stargard Szczeciński	1:0 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
20.07.25	Radomiak Radom - Pogoń Szczecin	5:1 ✺
Club Friendly
02.07.25	Arka Gdynia - Pogoń Szczecin	2:0 ✺
28.06.25	Pogoń Szczecin - Baník Ostrava	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 WWLLW

Latest Head to Head

Polish Ekstraklasa
21.05.22	Pogoń Szczecin - Termalica Nieciecza	2:2
04.12.21	Termalica Nieciecza - Pogoń Szczecin	1:3
15.04.18	Pogoń Szczecin - Termalica Nieciecza	2:0
17.03.18	Termalica Nieciecza - Pogoń Szczecin	2:4
21.10.17	Pogoń Szczecin - Termalica Nieciecza	2:3
17.05.17	Pogoń Szczecin - Termalica Nieciecza	1:1
16.12.16	Termalica Nieciecza - Pogoń Szczecin	2:0

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