Match Info

Ekstraklasa - Round 24

Date: 8 March 2026, Sunday

Location: zondacrypto Arena (Częstochowa)

Referee: Przybyl J. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Canada	beIN Connect
Croatia	Arena Sport 7, MAXtv To Go
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Poland	CANAL+ Premium, CANAL+ Sport 3, Ekstraklasa TV
Ukraine	Sport 1
Usa	beIN Connect, Fanatiz
World	Sport 1 Baltic


	Raków Częstochowa		Pogoń Szczecin

	1	X	2
	1.9	3.6	3.9	Watch
	1.85	3.6	3.75	Watch
	1.95	3.69	3.9
	1.84	4.01	3.92	Watch
	1.91	3.4	3.7
	1.89	3.68	3.66	Watch
	1.86	3.25	3.64
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.89 ↑ (1.86)	3.6 ↑ (3.25)	3.78 ↑ (3.64)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Raków Częstochowa
49.5%

Draw
25.9%

Pogoń Szczecin
24.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48%

27.5%

24.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.5%

28.9%

23.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Raków Częstochowa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.5%)

Pogoń Szczecin has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Raków Częstochowa than the current prediction. (+1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Pogoń Szczecin than the current prediction. (-1.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
62.5%	25%	12.5%

Raków Częstochowa - Pogoń Szczecin Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Raków will win (votes: 5 - 62.5%). Pogoń Szczecin will win (votes: 1 - 12.5%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Raków: 29% – 96%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Raków (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.5 - Pogoń Szczecin (3.94) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 3.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Raków (votes: 1 - 50%). Pogoń Szczecin (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
48. Zych O. (G) 7. Tudor F. (C) 25. Racovitan B. 4. Svarnas S. 6. Repka O. 19. Ameyaw M. 23. Struski K. 10. Lopez I. 8. Pienko T. 17. Rocha L. 18. Brunes J.	77. Cojocaru V. (G) 15. Ali H. 13. Keramitsis D. 41. Szalai At. 32. Koutris L. 8. Ulvestad F. (C) 90. Greenwood S. 25. Agger M. 14. Pozo J. 18. Mukairu P. 24. Angielski K.
Substitutes
11. Adriano 24. Arsenic Z. 39. Brusberg I. 5. Bulat M. 27. Dawidowicz P. 35. Ilenic M. 9. Makuch P. 44. Mircetic B. 2. Mosor A. 21. Napieraj J. 1. Trelowski K. (G) 29. Zolneczko W. (G)	6. Bieganski J. 10. Cuic F. 30. Czaplinski J. 31. Kaminski K. (G) 4. Leo Borges 22. Loncar D. 23. Mendy B. 61. Smolinski K.
Coaches
Tomczyk L.	Thomasberg T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
10', 1 - 0, Brunes J. ⚽, Repka O. (A),
13', Ali H. 🟨,
24', Ali H. 🟨,
28', Pozo J. ↓, Loncar D. ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Koutris L. ↓, Mendy B. ↑,
46', Angielski K. ↓, Cuic F. ↑,
61', Lopez I. ↓, Bulat M. ↑,
61', Agger M. ↓, Leo Borges ↑,
67', Rocha L. ↓, Makuch P. ↑,
68', Pienko T. ↓, Adriano ↑,
70', Mendy B. 🟨,
74', 2 - 0, Makuch P. ⚽, Adriano (A),
75', Greenwood S. ↓, Bieganski J. ↑,
80', Repka O. ↓, Dawidowicz P. ↑,
81', Brunes J. ↓, Brusberg I. ↑,

Preview

One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 5 and 11).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Raków won 2.

Raków has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Pogoń Szczecin is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Pogoń Szczecin may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Raków is seen as the favorite.

There will not play in Raków: Kochergin V. (Knee Injury) Otieno E. (Achilles Tendon Injury)

There will not play in Pogoń Szczecin: Acosta K. (Red Card) Molnar R. (Knee Injury) Wahlqvist L. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Raków: Silva J. C. (Injury)

In the last 14 head-to-head matches, Raków won 8 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 15:9. (average 1.1:0.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Raków won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 4:2. (average 0.7:0.3).

Outrights of Polish Ekstraklasa for now

Pogon Szczecin: 1.66%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Pogon Szczecin	8	4	3	1	12:6	6	15
18	Rakow	10	1	0	9	13:25	-12	3

Last Results with these Odds

Raków Częstochowa - the odds 1.86 are the expected chance of winning is 48%, but this team recently wins 70% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Raków Częstochowa
Polish Cup
05.03.26	Avia Świdnik - Raków Częstochowa	1:2 ET ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
01.03.26	Lech Poznań - Raków Częstochowa	4:3 ✺
21.02.26	Raków Częstochowa - Termalica Nieciecza	1:0 ✺
14.02.26	Zagłębie Lubin - Raków Częstochowa	0:0 ✺
08.02.26	Raków Częstochowa - Radomiak Radom	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 WLWTT
- Pogoń Szczecin
Polish Ekstraklasa
28.02.26	Pogoń Szczecin - Widzew Łódź	1:0 ✺
21.02.26	Górnik Zabrze - Pogoń Szczecin	0:1 ✺
15.02.26	Pogoń Szczecin - Arka Gdynia	1:0 ✺
08.02.26	Pogoń Szczecin - Termalica Nieciecza	1:1 ✺
01.02.26	Motor Lublin - Pogoń Szczecin	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.5 WWWTL

Latest Head to Head

Polish Ekstraklasa
31.08.25	Pogoń Szczecin - Raków Częstochowa	2:0
19.04.25	Pogoń Szczecin - Raków Częstochowa	1:0
20.10.24	Raków Częstochowa - Pogoń Szczecin	1:0
11.05.24	Raków Częstochowa - Pogoń Szczecin	2:1
12.11.23	Pogoń Szczecin - Raków Częstochowa	1:1
05.03.23	Pogoń Szczecin - Raków Częstochowa	0:2
Polish Cup
09.11.22	Pogoń Szczecin - Raków Częstochowa	0:1

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