Match Info

Ekstraklasa - Round 4

Date: 9 August 2025, Saturday

Location: Stadion Miejski w Gdyni (Gdynia)

Referee: Marciniak S. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 4
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports Espanol
Croatia	Arena Sport 5, MAXtv To Go
Finland	Veikkaus TV
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Poland	CANAL+ Sport 3, Ekstraklasa TV
Serbia	Arena Sport 3
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol, Fanatiz


	Arka Gdynia		Pogoń Szczecin

	1	X	2
	2.55	3.6	2.45	Watch
	2.4	3.2	2.85
	2.52	3.55	2.45	Watch
	2.67	3.68	2.54
	2.58	3.46	2.58	Watch
	2.5	3	2.75
	2.63	3.71	2.52	Watch
	2.95	3.2	2.35
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.6 ↓ (2.94)	3.43 ↑ (3.18)	2.56 ↑ (2.35)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Arka Gdynia
36%

Draw
27.4%

Pogoń Szczecin
36.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.5%

29.1%

39.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.7%

29.2%

39.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Arka Gdynia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.5%)

Pogoń Szczecin has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Arka Gdynia than the current prediction. (-4.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Pogoń Szczecin than the current prediction. (+2.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
21.4%	28.6%	50%

Arka Gdynia - Pogoń Szczecin Predictions

Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Arka will win (votes: 3 - 21.4%). Pogoń Szczecin will win (votes: 7 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 28.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Pogoń Szczecin: 23.8% – 76.2%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Pogoń Szczecin (1.99) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Pogoń Szczecin will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Pogoń Szczecin (votes: 4 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
77. Weglarz D. (G) 2. Navarro M. 29. Marcjanik M. (C) 18. Celestine J. 33. Abramowicz D. 37. Kerk S. 35. Jakubczyk K. 8. Sidibe A. 17. Predenkiewicz M. 22. Percan 11. Kocyla D.	31. Kaminski K. (G) 28. Wahlqvist L. 22. Loncar D. 2. Huja M. 4. Leo Borges 7. Juwara M. 8. Ulvestad F. 19. Ndiaye M. 14. Pozo J. 11. Grosicki K. (C) 9. Koulouris E.
Substitutes
99. Espiau Hernandez E. D. 9. Gaprindashvili T. 1. Grobelny J. (G) 23. Hermoso K. 10. Nguiamba A. 27. Oliveira J. 80. Petrovic Z. 14. Vitalucci H. 4. Zator D.	6. Bieganski J. 77. Cojocaru V. (G) 13. Keramitsis D. 99. Kostorz K. 32. Koutris L. 17. Lis J. 18. Mukairu P. 20. Paryzek P. 33. Peskovic A. (G) 10. Przyborek A. 61. Smolinski K. 35. Wojciechowski M.
Coaches
Szwarga D.	Kolendowicz R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
33', Percan 🟨,
38', 0 - 1, Loncar D. ⚽, Grosicki K. (A),
43', Huja M. 🟨,
45+1', 1 - 1, Kerk S. ⚽, Percan (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
60', Juwara M. ↓, Mukairu P. ↑,
65', Leo Borges ↓, Koutris L. ↑,
66', Percan ↓, Espiau Hernandez E. D. ↑,
66', Kocyla D. ↓, Oliveira J. ↑,
66', Predenkiewicz M. ↓, Gaprindashvili T. ↑,
74', Kerk S. ↓, Nguiamba A. ↑,
78', Koulouris E. (Pen),
80', 2 - 1, Jakubczyk K. ⚽,
81', Jakubczyk K. 🟨,
82', Wahlqvist L. 🟨,
82', Celestine J. 🟨,
85', Loncar D. 🟨,
85', Grosicki K. ↓, Kostorz K. ↑,
85', Ndiaye M. ↓, Keramitsis D. ↑,
85', Wahlqvist L. ↓, Lis J. ↑,
88', Jakubczyk K. ↓, Hermoso K. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Arka won 1.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Arka may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

There will not play in Pogoń Szczecin: Renyer (Inactive)

In the last 15 head-to-head matches, Arka won 1 match, drew 6 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 16:32. (average 1.1:2.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Arka won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 6:14. (average 0.9:2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Arka Gdynia
Polish Ekstraklasa
03.08.25	Legia Warsaw - Arka Gdynia	0:0 ✺
25.07.25	Arka Gdynia - Radomiak Radom	1:1 ✺
20.07.25	Motor Lublin - Arka Gdynia	1:0 ✺
Club Friendly
12.07.25	Arka Gdynia - Hapoel Jerusalem	1:2 ✺
05.07.25	Arka Gdynia - Chojniczanka Chojnice	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 TTLLW
- Pogoń Szczecin
Polish Ekstraklasa
02.08.25	Termalica Nieciecza - Pogoń Szczecin	1:1 ✺
26.07.25	Pogoń Szczecin - Motor Lublin	4:1 ✺
Club Friendly
21.07.25	Pogoń Szczecin - Błękitni Stargard Szczeciński	1:0 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
20.07.25	Radomiak Radom - Pogoń Szczecin	5:1 ✺
Club Friendly
02.07.25	Arka Gdynia - Pogoń Szczecin	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 TWWLL

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
02.07.25	Arka Gdynia - Pogoń Szczecin	2:0
15.11.24	Pogoń Szczecin - Arka Gdynia	1:1
22.01.21	Pogoń Szczecin - Arka Gdynia	2:2
Polish Ekstraklasa
30.11.19	Arka Gdynia - Pogoń Szczecin	1:1
29.07.19	Pogoń Szczecin - Arka Gdynia	2:0
Club Friendly
30.06.19	Arka Gdynia - Pogoń Szczecin	1:4
Polish Ekstraklasa
07.04.19	Pogoń Szczecin - Arka Gdynia	3:3

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