Match Info

2nd Division - Promotion Group - Round 23

Date: 11 April 2026, Saturday


	Thisted		Næstved BK

	1	X	2
	3.25	3.15	2.04
	3.5	3.38	2.01
	3.44	3.51	2.03	Watch
	3.3	3.1	1.95
	3.51	3.36	2.04
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.4 ↑ (2.8)	3.3 ↑ (3.15)	2.01 ↓ (2.26)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Thisted
26.9%

Draw
27.7%

Næstved BK
45.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32%

28.4%

39.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.1%

27.6%

40.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Thisted has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Thisted's form might have worsened.

Næstved BK has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Næstved BK's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Thisted than the current prediction. (+4.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Næstved BK than the current prediction. (-4.7%)

Thisted - Næstved BK Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 0)

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Thisted won 1.

Thisted has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Næstved is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Thisted may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Næstved is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Thisted won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 14:19. (average 1.3:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Thisted won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 5:10. (average 1:2).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Naestved	10	3	6	1	14:12	2	15
12	Thisted FC	10	1	1	8	8:21	-13	4

Last Results with these Odds

Næstved BK - the odds 2.26 are the expected chance of winning is 39.61%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Thisted FC
Danish 2 Division
06.04.26	Thisted - Brabrand	0:0 ✺
01.04.26	Fremad Amager - Thisted	2:0 ✺
27.03.26	Thisted - Skive IK	1:0 ✺
20.03.26	Vendsyssel - Thisted	2:1 ✺
15.03.26	Thisted - AB Copenhagen	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2 TLWLL
- Næstved BK
Danish 2 Division
06.04.26	Næstved BK - Hellerup	2:1 ✺
02.04.26	Roskilde - Næstved BK	2:3 ✺
29.03.26	Næstved BK - Brabrand	0:0 ✺
21.03.26	Skive IK - Næstved BK	0:0 ✺
15.03.26	Næstved BK - Vendsyssel	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.4 WWTTT

Latest Head to Head

Danish 2 Division
09.11.25	Thisted - Næstved BK	1:2
14.09.25	Næstved BK - Thisted	0:2
09.03.25	Næstved BK - Thisted	2:1
01.09.24	Thisted - Næstved BK	0:1
21.05.22	Thisted - Næstved BK	0:3
24.04.22	Næstved BK - Thisted	1:1
07.11.21	Næstved BK - Thisted	4:3

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