Match Info

First League - Round 6

Date: 14 May 2026, Thursday


	Tobol 2		Astana 2

	1	X	2
	3.75	4.05	1.65
	2.44	3.09	2.83	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.1 ↓ (3.75)	3.57 ↓ (4.05)	2.24 ↑ (1.65)

The best margin for this event is 8.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tobol 2
30.8%

Draw
26.7%

Astana 2
42.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

23.8%

22.1%

54.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

22.4%

20.8%

57.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tobol 2 has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Tobol 2's performance.

Astana 2 has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Astana 2 might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tobol 2 than the current prediction. (-8.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Tobol 2 that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Astana 2 than the current prediction. (+15.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Astana 2 could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
18', 0 - 1, Serikov N. ⚽, Akhmetov A. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
61', 1 - 1, Zhaksylyk N. ⚽, Batyrkhan Z. (A),
65', 1 - 2, Mustafin B. ⚽, Tokenov T. (A),

Preview

A great opportunity to watch a clash of neighbouring teams in the table (ranked 11 and 10)

Neither of the teams is performing well right now.

In this match, Astana 2 is the team to beat.

In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	FC Astana 2	23	10	3	10	42:43	-1	33
13	Tobol 2	23	4	4	15	40:57	-17	16

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tobol Kostanay 2
Kazakh First League
07.05.26	Tobol 2 - Arys	4:3 ✺
01.05.26	Shakhter Karagandy - Tobol 2	3:0 ✺
24.04.26	Tobol 2 - Turan Turkistan	2:3 ✺
17.04.26	Akademiya Ontustik - Tobol 2	3:0 ✺
02.04.26	Tobol 2 - Yelimay 2	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 WLLLT
- FC Astana 2
Kazakh First League
07.05.26	Astana 2 - Turan Turkistan	0:3 ✺
30.04.26	Arys - Astana 2	3:1 ✺
23.04.26	Astana 2 - Akademiya Ontustik	1:0 ✺
16.04.26	Jaiyq - Astana 2	1:0 ✺
03.04.26	Astana 2 - Aktobe 2	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12 LLWLT

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