Match Info

EUROPE: Europa League - Qualification - 1/8-finals

Date: 18 July 2024, Thursday

Location: Centralnyj Stadion (Kostanay)

Referee: Redder M. (Den)

Where to Watch on TV:


Kazakhstan	Sport+


	Tobol Kostanay		Ružomberok

	1	X	2
	1.57	4.1	4.75	Watch
	1.58	4.33	5.25
	1.57	4.33	5	Watch
	1.58	4.5	5.43
	1.57	4.32	5.04	Watch
	1.5	4.33	5
	1.58	4.5	5.1	Watch
	1.59	4.1	5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.57 ↓ (1.89)	4.31 ↑ (4.03)	5.07 ↑ (3.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tobol Kostanay
59.8%

Draw
21.7%

Ružomberok
18.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.8%

23.3%

26.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.6%

22.9%

26.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tobol Kostanay has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Tobol Kostanay's performance.

Ružomberok has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Ružomberok might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tobol Kostanay than the current prediction. (-9.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Tobol Kostanay that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ružomberok than the current prediction. (+8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Ružomberok could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75.3%	11.7%	13%

Tobol Kostanay - Ružomberok Predictions

Users Predictions: 75 users predict this event. Tobol will win (votes: 58 - 77.3%). Ružomberok will win (votes: 10 - 13.3%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 9.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Tobol: 67.8% – 86.8%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Pokatilov S. (G) 15. Gabaraev A. 55. Miladinovic I. 5. Ndiaye P. 16. Tapalov E. 13. Mosiashvili T. 6. Essien E. 11. Chesnokov I. (C) 8. El Messaoudi A. 77. Henen D. 10. Ivanovic I.	34. Fruhwald T. (G) 16. Kostl D. 32. Maly M. 2. Mojzis A. 4. Luteran O. 11. Lavrincik S. 6. Mudry T. 8. Domonkos K. 14. Hladik J. 26. Kelemen M. 30. Chrien M. (C)
Substitutes
4. Abdulla E. 3. Asrankulov R. 25. Bozhko R. 12. Busurmanov S. (G) 20. Costa R. 51. Galym B. 35. Melikhov Y. (G) 28. Skakhov Y. 21. Tsonev R. 19. Valiullin R. 7. Zhumashev Z.	18. Boda M. 5. Bozik R. 20. Chobot M. 15. Gerec S. 19. Gomola M. 13. Jackuliak D. 23. Madlenak M. 3. Maslo J. 35. Sokol B. (G) 1. Tapaj D. (G) 17. Tucny A.
Coaches
Zhumaskaliev N.	Smetana O.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
8', 1 - 0, El Messaoudi A. ⚽, Ivanovic I. (A),
45+2', Henen D. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Kelemen M. ↓, Tucny A. ↑,
62', Mosiashvili T. ↓, Costa R. ↑,
70', Mojzis A. ↓, Maslo J. ↑,
75', Henen D. ↓, Zhumashev Z. ↑,
75', Maly M. 🟨,
79', Chrien M. ↓, Gerec S. ↑,
88', Tucny A. 🟨,
90+1', Hladik J. ↓, Boda M. ↑,

Preview

2nd leg. 1st leg result: 2-5.

One and the other team get a very uncertain game.

Tobol could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Recently Tobol have a series of guest games.

In this match Tobol is a favorite.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Tobol won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 2-5.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tobol Kostanay
UEFA Europa League
11.07.24	Ružomberok - Tobol Kostanay	5:2 ✺
Kazakh League Cup
06.07.24	Tobol Kostanay - Aktobe	2:0 ✺
Kazakh Premier League
30.06.24	Aktobe - Tobol Kostanay	3:4 ✺
23.06.24	Atyrau - Tobol Kostanay	0:0 ✺
Kazakh Cup
19.06.24	Atyrau - Tobol Kostanay	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.8 LWWTL
- MFK Ružomberok
UEFA Europa League
11.07.24	Ružomberok - Tobol Kostanay	5:2 ✺
Club Friendly
03.07.24	Ružomberok - Zlín	2:2 ✺
29.06.24	Tatran Liptovský Mikuláš - Ružomberok	3:1 ✺
25.06.24	Rapid Bucureşti - Ružomberok	1:1 ✺
22.06.24	Domžale - Ružomberok	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.5 WTLTT

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Europa League
11.07.24	Ružomberok - Tobol Kostanay	5:2

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