Match Info

Premier League - Round 5

Date: 19 April 2025, Saturday

Location: Centralnyj Stadion (Kostanay)

Where to Watch on TV:


Kazakhstan	Qazsport
World	Onefootball


	Tobol Kostanay		Aktobe

	1	X	2
	1.9	3.2	3.6
	2.01	3.1	3.85
	2.06	2.99	3.91
	1.98	3.06	3.91	Watch
	2	3.22	3.96	Watch
	2	3.05	3.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.99 ↓ (2.29)	3.1 ↓ (3.38)	3.82 ↑ (2.91)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tobol Kostanay
46.2%

Draw
29.7%

Aktobe
24.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.6%

27.5%

31.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.3%

26.4%

30.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tobol Kostanay has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Tobol Kostanay's performance.

Aktobe has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Aktobe might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tobol Kostanay than the current prediction. (-3.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Aktobe than the current prediction. (+6.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Aktobe could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Tobol Kostanay - Aktobe Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 3.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
44. Ustimenko D. (G) 3. Asrankulov R. (C) 11. Chesnokov I. 6. Ededem E. 23. Erlanov T. 5. Ndiaye P. 18. Tagybergen A. 16. Victor Braga 15. Vukcevic M. 7. Zhumashev Z. 17. Zuev A.	25. Vlad A. (G) 4. Agbo U. 26. Andjelkovic N. 12. Doumbouya A. 99. Gondola F. 5. Kairov B. 6. Kasym A. (C) 15. Kiki G. 66. Rabiu M. 22. Seydakhmet E. 10. Umaev I.
Substitutes
45. Altaev A. 38. Bakitzhanov A. 33. Bitekenov A. 10. El Messaoudi A. 8. Galym B. 22. Kalmyrza M. 35. Melikhov Y. (G) 13. Mosiashvili T. 51. Mukhin D. (G) 14. Signevich N. 21. Tsonev R. 27. Zhagorov N.	80. Abdulla A. 9. Ivkovic D. 18. Jean J. 19. Omirtaev O. 2. Skvortsov L. 31. Tanzharikov A. 1. Trofimets I. (G) 3. Zhumagali S.
Coaches
Zhumaskaliyev N.	Leonov I.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
30', Tagybergen A. 🟨,
30', Rabiu M. 🟨,
43', Doumbouya A. 🟨,
44', Rabiu M. ↓, Tanzharikov A. ↑,
45+1', 1 - 0, Vukcevic M. ⚽, Tagybergen A. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Seydakhmet E. ↓, Jean J. ↑,
51', Kairov B. ↓, Omirtaev O. ↑,
64', Zuev A. ↓, El Messaoudi A. ↑,
65', Agbo U. 🟨,
74', Jean J. 🟨,
79', 2 - 0, Chesnokov I. ⚽, El Messaoudi A. (A),
81', Gondola F. ↓, Ivkovic D. ↑,
83', Zhumashev Z. ↓, Zhagorov N. ↑,
90+1', Tagybergen A. ↓, Mosiashvili T. ↑,

Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day's play. In the match war can see two teams from the top of the table (ranked 4 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Tobol won 3.

At the moment teams are feeling good and ready to play.

Tobol will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 20 head-to-head matches Tobol won 11 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 31:22 (average 1.6:1.1).

Including matches at home between the teams Tobol won 7 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 18:9 (average 1.8:0.9).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tobol Kostanay
Kazakh Cup
13.04.25	Tobol Kostanay - Zhetysu	1:0 ET ✺
Kazakh Premier League
05.04.25	Okzhetpes - Tobol Kostanay	0:1 ✺
30.03.25	Tobol Kostanay - Yelimay Semey	1:1 ✺
08.03.25	Zhenis - Tobol Kostanay	0:0 ✺
01.03.25	Tobol Kostanay - Ulytau	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 WWTTW
- FC Aktobe
Kazakh Cup
13.04.25	Zhenis - Aktobe	1:0 ✺
Kazakh Premier League
06.04.25	Aktobe - Kaisar	4:1 ✺
30.03.25	Atyrau - Aktobe	0:4 ✺
09.03.25	Aktobe - Turan Turkistan	2:1 ✺
01.03.25	Ordabasy - Aktobe	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.7 LWWWT

Latest Head to Head

Kazakh Premier League
22.09.24	Tobol Kostanay - Aktobe	3:0
Kazakh League Cup
06.07.24	Tobol Kostanay - Aktobe	2:0
Kazakh Premier League
30.06.24	Aktobe - Tobol Kostanay	3:4
20.08.23	Aktobe - Tobol Kostanay	1:1
23.04.23	Tobol Kostanay - Aktobe	2:2
15.10.22	Tobol Kostanay - Aktobe	1:0
Kazakh Cup
14.08.22	Aktobe - Tobol Kostanay	1:0

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