Match Info

Premier League - Round 1

Date: 7 March 2026, Saturday

Location: Turkestan Arena (Turkestan)


	Aktobe		Tobol Kostanay

	1	X	2
	2.55	3.2	2.37
	2.52	3.2	2.58	Watch
	2.64	3.35	2.47
	2.67	3.35	2.42	Watch
	2.5	3	2.5
	2.66	3.34	2.58
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.59 ↑ (2.28)	3.24 ↓ (3.36)	2.49 ↓ (2.92)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Aktobe
35.2%

Draw
28.1%

Tobol Kostanay
36.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.6%

27.6%

31.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Aktobe has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Aktobe's form might have worsened.

Tobol Kostanay has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.9%)

Aktobe - Tobol Kostanay Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
16. Zarutskiy A. (G) 23. Erlanov T. 21. Alvarez P. 18. Ordets I. (C) 27. Dosmagambetov T. 12. Topalov D. 20. Zhukov G. 7. Sosah D. 10. Zeljkovic A. 31. Tanzharikov A. 11. Shushenachev A.	1. Busurmanov S. (G) 22. Marochkin A. 4. Cavnic N. 5. Ndiaye P. 6. Myakish M. 8. Tagybergen A. 21. Zhagorov N. 3. Asrankulov R. (C) 30. Guerra L. 99. Hebaj R. 11. Marat D.
Substitutes
42. Baydavletov A. 5. Kairov B. 80. Kenesov A. 29. Kikbaev M. 30. Korzun N. 52. Kusainov S. (G) 4. Kusyapov T. 19. Laturnus V. 17. Nani 14. Pibe 22. Seydakhmet E. 1. Trofimets I. (G)	34. Bakhytkiriev S. 13. Cisse A. 10. Galym B. 26. Glushchenkov K. 88. Kalmyrza M. 35. Melikhov Y. (G) 18. Milovanovic U. 33. Pivovarov I. 14. Talal A. 29. Usenov D. 44. Ustimenko D. (G) 15. Vukcevic M. 7. Zhumashev Z. 19. Zhumat D. 17. Zuev A.
Coaches
Kostov N.	Zhumaskaliyev N.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
24', 1 - 0, Sosah D. ⚽, Shushenachev A. (A),
32', Guerra L. (Penalty Awarded),
39', Myakish M. 🟥,
2nd Half (3 - 1)
46', 2 - 0, Zeljkovic A. ⚽, Sosah D. (A),
52', Zhukov G. ↓, Korzun N. ↑,
62', Marat D. ↓, Zhumashev Z. ↑,
63', Guerra L. ↓, Zuev A. ↑,
63', Zhagorov N. ↓, Cisse A. ↑,
63', Hebaj R. ↓, Milovanovic U. ↑,
68', 3 - 0, Dosmagambetov T. ⚽,
71', Zeljkovic A. ↓, Seydakhmet E. ↑,
71', Sosah D. ↓, Nani ↑,
72', 3 - 1, Zhumashev Z. ⚽, Zuev A. (A),
74', 4 - 1, Ordets I. ⚽,
75', Seydakhmet E. 🟨,
80', Tanzharikov A. ↓, Kikbaev M. ↑,
80', Alvarez P. ↓, Baydavletov A. ↑,
83', Tagybergen A. ↓, Usenov D. ↑,

Preview

Playing home matches at a different stadium.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Aktobe won 0.

Aktobe may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Aktobe won 5 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 21:30. (average 1.1:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Aktobe won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 12:10. (average 1.2:1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Aktobe	27	13	6	8	41:32	9	45
7	Tobol	27	11	4	12	35:36	-1	37

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Aktobe
Club Friendly
16.02.26	Ufa - Aktobe	4:1 ✺
18.01.26	Aktobe - Baník Ostrava	0:3 ✺
Kazakh Premier League
26.10.25	Aktobe - Ordabasy	2:2 ✺
19.10.25	Astana - Aktobe	5:3 ✺
27.09.25	Aktobe - Kyzylzhar	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.7 LLTLW
- Tobol Kostanay
Kazakh Super Cup
28.02.26	Kairat - Tobol Kostanay	2:3 penalties ✺
Club Friendly
15.01.26	Napredak Kruševac - Tobol Kostanay	0:0 ✺
Kazakh Premier League
26.10.25	Ulytau - Tobol Kostanay	2:2 ✺
19.10.25	Zhetysu - Tobol Kostanay	1:2 ✺
Kazakh Cup
04.10.25	Ordabasy - Tobol Kostanay	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.6 WTTWW

Latest Head to Head

Kazakh Premier League
20.07.25	Aktobe - Tobol Kostanay	0:0
19.04.25	Tobol Kostanay - Aktobe	2:0
22.09.24	Tobol Kostanay - Aktobe	3:0
Kazakh League Cup
06.07.24	Tobol Kostanay - Aktobe	2:0
Kazakh Premier League
30.06.24	Aktobe - Tobol Kostanay	3:4
20.08.23	Aktobe - Tobol Kostanay	1:1
23.04.23	Tobol Kostanay - Aktobe	2:2

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