Match Info

2. SNL - Round 26

Date: 3 May 2025, Saturday


	Tolmin		Rudar Velenje

	1	X	2
	2.95	3.2	2.1
	3	3.3	2.14
	2.95	3.38	2.19
	3.1	3.38	2.24	Watch
	3.06	3.24	2.16
	3	3.3	2.14
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.01 ↑ (2.45)	3.3 ↓ (3.32)	2.16 ↓ (2.65)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tolmin
30.3%

Draw
27.6%

Rudar Velenje
42.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.6%

27.7%

34.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.7%

26.2%

32.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tolmin has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Tolmin's form might have worsened.

Rudar Velenje has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Rudar Velenje's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tolmin than the current prediction. (+9.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Tolmin, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Rudar Velenje than the current prediction. (-9.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Rudar Velenje, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Tolmin - Rudar Velenje Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
43', 0 - 1, ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 3)
53', 0 - 2, ⚽,
71', 0 - 3, ⚽,
81', 0 - 4, ⚽,

Preview

In this match, only outsiders will meet (ranked 16 in the zone Relegation and 14).

Tolmin is going through a poor run of results (last 5 games: 0 wins).

In recent matches, Rudar has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Tolmin may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Rudar could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Tolmin won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 5:5. (average 1.7:1.7).

Including home match between the teams, Tolmin won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- NK Tolmin
Slovenian 2 SNL
25.04.25	Brinje-Grosuplje - Tolmin	1:0 ✺
18.04.25	Tolmin - Beltinci	0:2 ✺
11.04.25	Gorica - Tolmin	2:0 ✺
05.04.25	Tolmin - Ilirija Ljubljana	0:2 ✺
28.03.25	Aluminij Kidricevo - Tolmin	5:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL
- Rudar Velenje
Slovenian 2 SNL
25.04.25	Rudar Velenje - Krka	0:0 ✺
19.04.25	Bilje - Rudar Velenje	0:1 ✺
11.04.25	Rudar Velenje - Tabor Sežana	1:2 ✺
06.04.25	Drava Ptuj - Rudar Velenje	1:0 ✺
28.03.25	Rudar Velenje - Bistrica	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 TWLLT

Latest Head to Head

Slovenian 2 SNL
18.10.24	Rudar Velenje - Tolmin	2:1
29.03.24	Rudar Velenje - Tolmin	3:1
16.09.23	Tolmin - Rudar Velenje	3:0

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