Match Info

Serie D - Group C - Round 9

Date: 25 October 2026, Sunday 🏁 Finished

Location: Stadio Nereo Rocco (Trieste) 🌤️ ...


	Triestina		Mestre

	1	X	2
	2.35	3.10	2.70
	2.33	3.10	2.65
	2.36	3.08	2.75
	2.39	3.19	2.77	Watch
	2.30	3.00	2.70
	2.32	3.13	2.69
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.34 ↓ (2.44)	3.1 ↑ (3.05)	2.71 ↓ (2.8)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 9.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Triestina
38.2%

Draw
28.8%

Mestre
33%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

37.4%

29.9%

32.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.8%

28.8%

31.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Triestina has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)

Mestre has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Triestina than the current prediction. (+0.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mestre than the current prediction. (-1.6%)

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
3', 0 - 1, Brandi N. ⚽,
22', 0 - 2, Brandi N. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

Two mid-table squads battle for vital points to solidify their season (ranked 13th and 9th).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Triestina won 1.

Both teams have experienced an unpredictable run of results lately.

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

In the last 6 head-to-head meetings, Triestina has recorded 1 win, 2 draws, and 3 losses, with a goal aggregate of 11:14 (averaging 1.8:2.3 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Triestina against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 1 draw, and 1 loss, with 7:4 goals (averaging 2.3:1.3 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Mestre	9	3	4	2	12:10	2	13
14	Triestina	9	2	3	4	8:12	-4	9

Last Results with these Odds

Mestre - the odds 2.8 are the expected chance of winning is 32.62%, but this team recently wins 20% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Unione Triestina 2012
Italian Serie D - Group C
18.10.26	Triestina - Conegliano	1:0 ✺
11.10.26	Lavarian Mortean Esperia - Triestina	2:1 ✺
04.10.26	Triestina - Obermais	2:0 ✺
27.09.26	Cjarlins Muzane - Triestina	3:0 ✺
20.09.26	Triestina - Bassano Virtus	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 WLWLT
- AC Mestre
Italian Serie D - Group C
18.10.26	Mestre - Cjarlins Muzane	0:2 ✺
11.10.26	Conegliano - Mestre	2:1 ✺
04.10.26	Mestre - Campodarsego	1:1 ✺
27.09.26	Obermais - Mestre	2:2 ✺
20.09.26	Mestre - Altavilla	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.1 LLTTW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie C Group B
05.02.18	Triestina - Mestre	0:0
24.09.17	Mestre - Triestina	2:1
Coppa Italia Serie C
23.08.17	Triestina - Mestre	4:0
Italian Serie D - Group C
13.04.17	Mestre - Triestina	3:3
04.12.16	Triestina - Mestre	3:4
10.02.16	Mestre - Triestina	5:0

Triestina - Mestre