Match Info

Tercera RFEF - Group 3 - Round 18

Date: 18 January 2026, Sunday


	Tropezón		Noja

	1	X	2
	1.38	3.95	7.5
	1.42	3.69	9
	1.33	4.2	8
	1.44	4.19	7.33
	1.38	3.6	10
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.39 ↑ (1.31)	3.93 ↓ (4.59)	8.37 ↑ (8.23)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tropezón
65.8%

Draw
23.3%

Noja
10.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

69.3%

19.7%

11%

Our Initial ML Estimation

72.3%

18.9%

10.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tropezón has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.5%)

Noja has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tropezón than the current prediction. (+6.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Tropezón, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Noja than the current prediction. (-0.4%)

Tropezón - Noja Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
27', 1 - 0, ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
88', 2 - 0, ⚽,

Preview

This match features one of the leaders against an outsider (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Tercera RFEF ~ Group 3 (Play Offs: ) and 14).

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Noja may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Tropezón is the clear favorite.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Tropezón won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:3. (average 2.5:1.5).

Including home match between the teams, Tropezón won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:1.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Tropezon	5	5	0	0	11:2	9	15

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Tropezón
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 3
11.01.26	Tropezón - Castro	3:1 ✺
04.01.26	Cayón - Tropezón	3:1 ✺
21.12.25	Tropezón - Montañas del Pas	3:1 ✺
14.12.25	Escobedo - Tropezón	2:1 ✺
07.12.25	Tropezón - Vimenor	5:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 WLWLW
- Noja
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 3
10.01.26	Cartes - Noja	1:1 ✺
04.01.26	Noja - Gimnástica de Torrelavega	0:0 ✺
20.12.25	Revilla - Noja	2:1 ✺
07.12.25	Colindres - Noja	1:2 ✺
23.11.25	Noja - Selaya	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15 TTLWW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 1
09.02.14	Tropezón - Noja	3:1
28.09.13	Noja - Tropezón	2:2

Tropezón - Noja: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide