Match Info

Tercera RFEF - Group 3 - Round 16

Date: 4 January 2026, Sunday


	Cayón		Tropezón

	1	X	2
	2.88	2.98	2.35
	3.07	3.04	2.31	Watch
	2.75	3.1	2.38
	2.93	3.4	2.3
	2.85	2.85	2.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.9 ↑ (2.64)	3.07 ↓ (3.18)	2.37 ↓ (2.42)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cayón
31.6%

Draw
29.8%

Tropezón
38.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.3%

28.4%

37.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.9%

28.1%

37.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cayón has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)

Tropezón has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cayón than the current prediction. (+2.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tropezón than the current prediction. (-0.9%)

Cayón - Tropezón Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
24', 1 - 0, Alonso A. ⚽,
29', 1 - 1, ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
54', 2 - 1, ⚽,
87', 3 - 1, ⚽,

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 7 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Tercera RFEF ~ Group 3 (Play Offs: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Cayón won 4.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Cayón may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Tropezón has had a series of home games.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Cayón won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 15:12. (average 1.4:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Cayón won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 8:8. (average 1.6:1.6).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Tropezon	5	5	0	0	11:2	9	15
5	Cayon	5	3	1	1	5:2	3	10

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Cayón
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 3
20.12.25	Cartes - Cayón	0:0 ✺
14.12.25	Cayón - Gimnástica de Torrelavega	0:2 ✺
06.12.25	Revilla - Cayón	2:2 ✺
23.11.25	Cayón - Guarnizo	1:1 ✺
16.11.25	Colindres - Cayón	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.6 TLTTW
- CD Tropezón
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 3
21.12.25	Tropezón - Montañas del Pas	3:1 ✺
14.12.25	Escobedo - Tropezón	2:1 ✺
07.12.25	Tropezón - Vimenor	5:0 ✺
23.11.25	Tropezón - Atlético Albericia	1:0 ✺
09.11.25	Tropezón - Gimnástica de Torrelavega	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 WLWWL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 3
07.06.25	Tropezón - Cayón	1:2 ET
31.05.25	Cayón - Tropezón	1:1
16.02.25	Tropezón - Cayón	0:1
Club Friendly
09.08.23	Tropezón - Cayón	0:2
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 3
09.04.23	Cayón - Tropezón	2:0
10.12.22	Tropezón - Cayón	1:1
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 2
01.05.22	Cayón - Tropezón	4:3

Cayón - Tropezón: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide