Match Info

Segunda RFEF - Group 1 - Round 5

Date: 5 October 2025, Sunday


	UD Ourense		Real Ávila

	1	X	2
	2.25	3.25	2.7
	2.58	3.15	2.48
	2.57	3.56	2.52
	2.80	2.02	4.36	Watch
	2.73	2.98	2.73
	2.25	3.4	2.68
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.53 ↓ (3.52)	3.06 ↓ (3.3)	2.91 ↑ (2.05)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

UD Ourense
37.1%

Draw
30.7%

Real Ávila
32.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

26.4%

28.2%

45.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

25.1%

26.8%

47.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

UD Ourense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in UD Ourense's performance.

Real Ávila has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-13.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Real Ávila might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for UD Ourense than the current prediction. (-12%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with UD Ourense that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Real Ávila than the current prediction. (+15.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Real Ávila could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

UD Ourense - Real Ávila Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - UD Ourense (1.95) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. UD Ourense (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 1)
76', 1 - 0, Barbosa J. ⚽,
90+1', 1 - 1, Lorenzo D. ⚽,

Preview

UD Ourense is going through a poor run of results (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Real Ávila is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Real Ávila may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- UD Ourense
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 1
28.09.25	Salamanca - UD Ourense	1:0 ✺
21.09.25	UD Ourense - Marino de Luanco	0:1 ✺
14.09.25	Burgos Promesas - UD Ourense	1:1 ✺
Club Friendly
21.08.25	UD Ourense - Lugo	0:1 ✺
17.08.25	Arenteiro - UD Ourense	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.4 LLTLL
- Real Ávila
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 1
28.09.25	Real Ávila - Lealtad	1:0 ✺
20.09.25	Langreo - Real Ávila	1:2 ✺
14.09.25	Real Ávila - Bergantiños	2:1 ✺
06.09.25	Atlético Astorga - Real Ávila	1:3 ✺
Club Friendly
30.08.25	San Sebastian Reyes - Real Ávila	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.7 WWWWL

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