Match Info

ITALY: Serie D - Group H - Round 17

Date: 22 December 2024, Sunday 🏁 Finished


	Ugento		Virtus Francavilla

	1	X	2
	4.1	3.3	1.73
	4.3	3.4	1.75
	4.01	3.28	1.76
	4.37	3.43	1.76
	4.2	3.4	1.72
	4.63	3.32	1.72
	4.3	3.4	1.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.27 ↓ (4.42)	3.36 ↓ (3.39)	1.74 ↑ (1.72)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 8.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ugento
21.2%

Draw
26.9%

Virtus Francavilla
51.9%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

20.5%

26.8%

52.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

20.6%

26.7%

52.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ugento has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

Virtus Francavilla has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ugento than the current prediction. (-0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Virtus Francavilla than the current prediction. (+0.5%)

Ugento - Virtus Francavilla Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 0)
88', 1 - 0, Pascual D. R. ⚽,

Preview

Let's watch a game between leader and an outsider (ranked 14 in the zone Serie D ~ Group H (Play Out: ) and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie D ~ Group H (Play Offs: )).

One and the other team get a very uncertain game.

Ugento could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Virtus Francavilla is a favorite.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- ASD Ugento
Italian Serie D - Group H
15.12.24	Matera - Ugento	1:0 ✺
01.12.24	Martina Calcio - Ugento	3:0 ✺
24.11.24	Ugento - Città di Brindisi	3:0 ✺
10.11.24	Ugento - Palmese 1914	2:0 ✺
03.11.24	Gravina - Ugento	5:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.7 LLWWL
- Virtus Francavilla Calcio
Italian Serie D - Group H
08.12.24	Nocerina - Virtus Francavilla	2:0 ✺
01.12.24	Virtus Francavilla - Matera	1:2 ✺
24.11.24	Angri - Virtus Francavilla	0:2 ✺
17.11.24	Città di Fasano - Virtus Francavilla	0:1 ✺
Coppa Italia Serie D
13.11.24	Virtus Francavilla - Martina Calcio	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 LLWWL

Upcoming Matches

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Virtus Francavilla Calcio
Coppa Italia Serie D
28.10.26	Fidelis Andria - Virtus Francavilla	✺

Ugento - Virtus Francavilla