Match Info

Premier League - Championship Group - Round 24

Date: 6 July 2026, Monday


	Ulaanbaatar		Deren

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.15	3.80	2.50
				Watch
	2.44	4.11	2.27
	2.36	3.74	2.53	Watch
	2.26	4.11	2.34	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.3 ↑ (1.94)	3.94 ↓ (4.1)	2.41 ↓ (3.03)

The most likely Over/Under: 4.00

The best margin for this event is 8.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ulaanbaatar
39.4%

Draw
23%

Deren
37.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.3%

22.4%

30.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.6%

22.5%

30.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ulaanbaatar has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Ulaanbaatar's form might have worsened.

Deren has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Deren's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ulaanbaatar than the current prediction. (+8.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Ulaanbaatar, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Deren than the current prediction. (-7.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Deren, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Ulaanbaatar - Deren Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:2

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
33', 0 - 1, Myagmar B. ⚽,
45+1', 0 - 2, Temuulen U. (Own goal),
2nd Half (2 - 1)
77', 0 - 3, Usukh-Ireedui B. (Penalty Awarded),
80', 1 - 3, Mijiddorj O. ⚽,
86', 2 - 3, Mijiddorj O. ⚽,

Preview

Ulaanbaatar is Confirmed as championsnQualified for AFC Challenge League (Qualification )

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ulaanbaatar won 2.

In recent matches, Ulaanbaatar has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Deren is on a winning streak and currently in very good shape (last 5 games: 5 wins).

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 14 head-to-head matches, Ulaanbaatar won 7 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 26:17. (average 1.9:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Ulaanbaatar won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 18:8. (average 2.6:1.1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Deren	6	4	2	0	20:7	13	14
3	FC Ulaanbaatar	5	4	1	0	26:3	23	13

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Ulaanbaatar
Mongolian Premier League
03.07.26	Khangarid - Ulaanbaatar	3:4 ✺
30.06.26	Ulaanbaatar - Central Stallions	2:3 ✺
24.06.26	Ulaanbaatar - Khangarid	3:1 ✺
21.06.26	Central Stallions - Ulaanbaatar	0:3 ✺
17.06.26	Central Stallions - Ulaanbaatar	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 WLWWL
- Deren FC
Mongolian Premier League
03.07.26	Central Stallions - Deren	0:3 ✺
30.06.26	Deren - Khangarid	2:1 ✺
24.06.26	Deren - Central Stallions	2:0 ✺
21.06.26	Khangarid - Deren	2:3 ✺
18.06.26	Khovd - Deren	0:6 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.7 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Mongolian Premier League
23.05.26	Ulaanbaatar - Deren	2:0
26.10.25	Deren - Ulaanbaatar	1:1
11.06.25	Ulaanbaatar - Deren	4:1
09.03.25	Deren - Ulaanbaatar	2:0
22.06.24	Deren - Ulaanbaatar	1:1
21.04.24	Ulaanbaatar - Deren	5:1
21.10.23	Deren - Ulaanbaatar	1:0

Ulaanbaatar - Deren: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide