Match Info

GERMANY: 3. LIGA - ROUND 5

Date: 2 September 2023, Saturday

Location: Donaustadion (Ulm)

Referee: Wienefeld J. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


Germany	Magenta Sport


	Ulm 1846		Lübeck

	1	X	2
	1.91	3.5	4
	1.92	3.4	3.7
	1.93	3.68	4.07
	1.95	3.25	3.4
	1.86	3.66	3.78	Watch
	1.88	3.45	3.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.91 ↓ (2.18)	3.49 ↓ (3.55)	3.76 ↑ (2.84)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ulm 1846
48.7%

Draw
26.6%

Lübeck
24.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42%

25.8%

32.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.8%

24.7%

30.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ulm 1846 has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Ulm 1846's performance.

Lübeck has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Lübeck might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ulm 1846 than the current prediction. (-4.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lübeck than the current prediction. (+6.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Lübeck could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
54.5%	36.4%	9.1%

Ulm 1846 - Lübeck Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Ulm will win (votes: 6 - 54.5%). Lübeck will win (votes: 1 - 9.1%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 36.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Ulm: 25.1% – 83.9%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
39. Ortag C. (G) 4. Gaal T. 5. Reichert J. 6. Geyer T. 7. Allgeier B. 26. Maier P. 23. Brandt M. 43. Rosch R. 22. Scienza L. 9. Roser L. 21. Jann N.	1. Klewin P. (G) 24. Rudiger M. 8. Egerer F. 30. Lohden J. 22. Sommer L. 20. Taffertshofer U. 31. Boland M. (C) 21. Velasco R. 25. Gozusirin T. 10. Farrona-Pulido M. 14. Akono C.
Substitutes
8. Ahrend L. 11. Chessa D. 29. De Sousa Oelsner D. 33. Higl F. 10. Ludwig A. 1. Otto L. (G) 31. Ruhle T. 18. Stoll L. 25. Yarbrough L.	28. Didzilatis G. (G) 29. Facklam M. 27. Reddemann S. 33. Schneider J. 13. Thiel M.
Coaches
Worle T.	Pfeiffer L.

Preview

The game of competitors is shaky now.

Lübeck could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Ulm will have a small advantage in this match.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ulm 1846
German 3 Bundesliga
25.08.23	Duisburg - Ulm 1846	1:1 ✺
22.08.23	Ulm 1846 - Arminia Bielefeld	1:0 ✺
19.08.23	Unterhaching - Ulm 1846	3:2 ✺
06.08.23	Ulm 1846 - Saarbrücken	1:1 ✺
Club Friendly
19.07.23	VfR Aalen - Ulm 1846	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.5 TWLTW
- Vfb Lübeck
German 3 Bundesliga
26.08.23	Lübeck - Erzgebirge Aue	1:1 ✺
22.08.23	1860 München - Lübeck	1:2 ✺
19.08.23	Waldhof Mannheim - Lübeck	2:2 ✺
German DFB Pokal
14.08.23	Lübeck - Hoffenheim	1:4 ✺
German 3 Bundesliga
05.08.23	Lübeck - Sandhausen	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.8 TWTLT

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