Match Info

3. Liga - Round 38

Date: 16 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Donaustadion (Ulm)

Referee: Exner F. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


Germany	Magenta Sport, SR Fernsehen, SWR Fernsehen, WDR Fernsehen
Switzerland	Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+
World	Onefootball


	Ulm 1846		Rot-Weiß Essen

	1	X	2
	4.5	4.1	1.53	Watch
	4.75	4.55	1.55	Watch
	4.06	4.62	1.75
	4.71	4.62	1.56	Watch
	4.6	4.2	1.53
	4.38	4.4	1.55	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.5 ↑ (3.79)	4.42 ↓ (4.93)	1.58 ↓ (1.64)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ulm 1846
20.5%

Draw
20.9%

Rot-Weiß Essen
58.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

24.5%

18.8%

56.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

25.3%

18.2%

54.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ulm 1846 has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4%)

Rot-Weiß Essen has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ulm 1846 than the current prediction. (+4.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Rot-Weiß Essen than the current prediction. (-3.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	12.5%	87.5%

Ulm 1846 - Rot Weiß Essen Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Rot-Weiß Essen (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1 - Rot-Weiß Essen (1.86) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Rot-Weiß Essen will win (7 of 8 users predict this - 87.5%).
Confidence interval (95%): 64.58% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Rot-Weiß Essen (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
39. Ortag C. (G) 8. Westermeier B. 27. Mazagg L. 3. Vukancic N. 32. Kolle N. 14. Dressel D. 11. Chessa D. 26. El-Zein A. 23. Brandt M. 9. Roser L. 25. Loder E.	1. Golz J. (C) 15. Huning B. 23. Rios Alonso J. 33. Kraulich T. 37. Hofmann J. 39. Swajkowski G. 26. Musel T. 2. Kostka M. 7. Safi R. 24. Mizuta K. 9. Cuber Potocnik J.
Substitutes
7. Aksakal E. 33. Anderson Brown E. 31. Ehe B. 2. Gorlich L. 45. Mamba S. 36. Mrden M. 12. Seybold M. (G) 30. Vater F.	11. Abiama D. 20. Janssen M. 18. Kaiser N. 10. Obuz M. 30. Owusu K. 16. Reisig R. 22. Schmidt D. 4. Schultz M. 35. Wienand F. (G)
Coaches
Dotchev P.	Koschinat U.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 2)
2', 0 - 1, Musel T. ⚽, Cuber Potocnik J. (A),
6', Brandt M. 🟨,
10', Chessa D. 🟨,
22', Mazagg L. 🟨,
28', 1 - 1, Roser L. (Penalty Awarded),
35', 2 - 1, Chessa D. ⚽,
40', 2 - 2, Musel T. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Rios Alonso J. ↓, Abiama D. ↑,
52', Kraulich T. 🟨,
64', Swajkowski G. ↓, Janssen M. ↑,
64', Safi R. ↓, Obuz M. ↑,
67', Brandt M. ↓, Aksakal E. ↑,
67', El-Zein A. ↓, Gorlich L. ↑,
71', Mazagg L. 🟨,
90+1', Loder E. ↓, Mrden M. ↑,
90+1', Westermeier B. ↓, Vater F. ↑,
90+2', 2 - 3, Huning B. ⚽,
90+4', Mizuta K. ↓, Reisig R. ↑,
90+4', Vukancic N. ↓, Anderson Brown E. ↑,

Preview

Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation and 4).

Ulm is Relegated to

Ulm is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Rot-Weiß Essen's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

In this match, Rot-Weiß Essen is the team to beat.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Ulm won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 6:4. (average 2:1.3).

Including home match between the teams, Ulm won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.

Outrights of German 3 Bundesliga for now

RW Essen: 19%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	RW Essen	8	4	3	1	16:12	4	15

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ulm 1846
German 3 Bundesliga
09.05.26	Osnabrück - Ulm 1846	1:1 ✺
02.05.26	Ulm 1846 - Viktoria Köln	0:2 ✺
25.04.26	1860 München - Ulm 1846	3:2 ✺
18.04.26	Ulm 1846 - TSV Havelse	2:1 ✺
11.04.26	Hansa Rostock - Ulm 1846	5:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 TLLWL
- Rot-Weiß Essen
German 3 Bundesliga
09.05.26	Rot-Weiß Essen - Verl	1:0 ✺
02.05.26	VfB Stuttgart II - Rot-Weiß Essen	6:1 ✺
26.04.26	Rot-Weiß Essen - Saarbrücken	1:2 ✺
19.04.26	Energie Cottbus - Rot-Weiß Essen	5:3 ✺
11.04.26	Rot-Weiß Essen - Ingolstadt	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.5 WLLLW

Latest Head to Head

German 3 Bundesliga
20.12.25	Rot-Weiß Essen - Ulm 1846	3:2
17.02.24	Rot-Weiß Essen - Ulm 1846	0:2
24.09.23	Ulm 1846 - Rot-Weiß Essen	2:1

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