Match Info

Liga 2 - Promotion Group - Round 3

Date: 11 October 2026, Sunday 🏁 Finished

Location: Villa Deportiva USMP (Lima) 🌤️ ...


	Universidad San Martín		Bentín Tacna Heroica

	1	X	2
	2.25	3.00	2.90
	2.00	3.10	3.30
	2.32	2.95	2.82
	2.4	3.18	2.95	Watch
	2.25	2.85	2.75
	2.27	3.04	2.95
	2.3	2.95	2.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.26 ↑ (1.79)	3.01 ↓ (3.3)	2.93 ↓ (3.95)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Universidad San Martín
39.7%

Draw
29.8%

Bentín Tacna Heroica
30.5%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

50.1%

27.2%

22.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.8%

27.6%

21.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Universidad San Martín has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Universidad San Martín's form might have worsened.

Bentín Tacna Heroica has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Bentín Tacna Heroica's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Universidad San Martín than the current prediction. (+11.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Universidad San Martín, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bentín Tacna Heroica than the current prediction. (-8.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Bentín Tacna Heroica, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Universidad San Martín - Bentín Tacna Heroica Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ynamine P. (G)
5. Ampuero A.
18. Arteaga A.
19. Chumpitaz I.
70. Lopez C.
10. Oliva E.
4. Otavio Gut
24. Pena K.
17. Reyes J.
16. Sanchez S.
8. Sanchez V.
Substitutes
9. Affonso M.
7. Arroe J.
29. Ismodes D.
12. Mayta Boza L. L. (G)
32. Mendoza F.
90. Sanchez K.
23. Vargas R.
13. Vega C.
39. Vera F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
35', 1 - 0, Lopez C. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', 🟨,
84', 2 - 0, ⚽,

Preview

Both teams have shown inconsistent performances in recent matches.

Tacna Heroica may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

In the last 2 head-to-head meetings, Uni San Martín has recorded 1 win, 0 draws, and 1 loss, with a goal aggregate of 2:3 (averaging 1:1.5 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Uni San Martín against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 0 draws, and 0 losses, with 2:1 goals.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Universidad San Martín
Peruvian Liga 2
06.10.26	Universidad San Martín - Alianza Universidad de Huánuco	2:1 ✺
25.09.26	Carlos A. Mannucci - Universidad San Martín	7:0 ✺
13.09.26	Universidad San Martín - Cantolao	2:2 ✺
06.09.26	Unión Comercio - Universidad San Martín	1:0 ✺
29.08.26	Universidad San Martín - Universidad César Vallejo	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 WLTLW
- Bentín Tacna Heroica
Peruvian Liga 2
08.10.26	Bentín Tacna Heroica - Carlos A. Mannucci	0:0 ✺
27.09.26	Alianza Universidad de Huánuco - Bentín Tacna Heroica	2:2 ✺
12.09.26	Estudiantil CNI - Bentín Tacna Heroica	1:1 ✺
30.08.26	Bentín Tacna Heroica - Santos	3:1 ✺
24.08.26	Alianza Universidad de Huánuco - Bentín Tacna Heroica	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 TTTWL

Latest Head to Head

Peruvian Liga 2
14.06.25	Bentín Tacna Heroica - Universidad San Martín	2:0
27.04.25	Universidad San Martín - Bentín Tacna Heroica	2:1

Upcoming Matches