Match Info

Paulista A3 - Round 8

Date: 21 February 2026, Saturday


	União São João		Marília

	1	X	2
	3.1	2.98	2.2
	3.27	2.9	2.26	Watch
	3.2	2.7	2.3
	3.26	2.82	2.27
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.21 ↑ (2.83)	2.85 ↓ (3.04)	2.26 ↓ (2.41)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 9.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

União São João
28.2%

Draw
31.7%

Marília
40.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.2%

30%

37.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.9%

29.7%

38.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

União São João has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4%)

Marília has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for União São João than the current prediction. (+3.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Marília than the current prediction. (-1.9%)

União São João - Marília Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 1)
79', 0 - 1, Joao Lucas ⚽,

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Paulista A3 (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Paulista A3 (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

União São João is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Marília is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

União São João may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, União São João won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 2:5. (average 0.5:1.3).

Including home match between the teams, União São João won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- União São João de Araras
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista A3
14.02.26	União São João - União Suzano	1:0 ✺
11.02.26	Rio Branco de Americana - União São João	1:1 ✺
04.02.26	Rio Preto - União São João	1:0 ✺
31.01.26	União São João - Rio Claro	1:2 ✺
28.01.26	União São João - União Barbarense	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 WTLLL
- Marília AC
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista A3
14.02.26	Marília - Portuguesa Santista	3:0 ✺
11.02.26	Rio Preto - Marília	1:1 ✺
07.02.26	Marília - União Barbarense	1:0 ✺
04.02.26	Itapirense - Marília	1:2 ✺
31.01.26	Marília - Paulista	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 WTWWT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Paulista A3
26.03.25	Marília - União São João	3:0
22.03.25	União São João - Marília	1:0
08.02.25	Marília - União São João	2:1
27.01.24	Marília - União São João	0:0

União São João - Marília: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide