Match Info

Paulista A3 - Play Offs - Final

Date: 22 April 2026, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Bento de Abreu (Sao Paulo)


	Marília		Portuguesa Santista

	1	X	2
	2.1	2.82	3.5
	2.19	2.68	3.55
	2.22	2.72	3.63	Watch
	2.2	2.6	3.6
	2.18	2.71	3.65
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.18 ↑ (2.04)	2.71 ↓ (3.05)	3.59 ↓ (3.64)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 9.4%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Marília
41.5%

Draw
33.4%

Portuguesa Santista
25.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.9%

30%

25.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.7%

30.1%

25.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Marília has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.4%)

Portuguesa Santista has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Marília than the current prediction. (+3.2%)

The ML Model estimate for Portuguesa Santista aligns with the current prediction.

Marília - Portuguesa Santista Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

#ad

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
1', 1 - 0, Marcondele ⚽,
9', 2 - 0, Willian ⚽,
13', 2 - 1, Otavio ⚽,
45+3', Samuel Balbino 🟥,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
90+5', 2 - 2, Rafinha ⚽,

Preview

First leg.

The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Paulista A3 (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Paulista A3 (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

At the moment, both teams are looking strong and ready to play.

Marília could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Marília won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:0.

Including home match between the teams, Marília won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Marília AC
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista A3
18.04.26	Marília - XV de Jaú	3:2 penalties ✺
12.04.26	XV de Jaú - Marília	0:0 ✺
04.04.26	Marília - EC São Bernardo	3:0 penalties ✺
28.03.26	EC São Bernardo - Marília	2:0 ✺
21.03.26	Marília - Francana	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 WTWLW
- Portuguesa Santista
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista A3
18.04.26	Portuguesa Santista - Rio Preto	1:1 ✺
11.04.26	Rio Preto - Portuguesa Santista	0:1 ✺
05.04.26	Portuguesa Santista - Paulista	2:0 penalties ✺
28.03.26	Paulista - Portuguesa Santista	2:1 ✺
21.03.26	Portuguesa Santista - União Barbarense	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 TWWLW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Paulista A3
14.02.26	Marília - Portuguesa Santista	3:0

Marília - Portuguesa Santista: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide