Match Info

GERMANY: 3. Liga - Round 28

Date: 11 March 2025, Tuesday

Location: Uhlsport Park (Unterhaching)

Referee: Jurgensen L. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Sportklub 8
Croatia	SportKlub 8
Germany	Magenta Sport
Montenegro	Sportklub 8
North-macedonia	Sportklub 8
Serbia	SportKlub 8
World	Onefootball


	Unterhaching		Verl

	1	X	2
	3	3.4	2.2
	3.4	3.5	2
	3	3.45	2.24
	3.09	3.57	2.29
	3.04	3.47	2.23	Watch
	2.9	3.25	2.25
	3.04	3.44	2.23	Watch
	3.1	3.4	2.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.07 ↓ (3.59)	3.44 ↓ (3.56)	2.21 ↑ (1.93)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Unterhaching
30.4%

Draw
27.2%

Verl
42.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

25.8%

26%

48.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

25.1%

25.3%

49.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Unterhaching has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.6%)

Verl has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Verl might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Unterhaching than the current prediction. (-5.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Unterhaching that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Verl than the current prediction. (+7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Verl could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
30.8%	15.4%	53.8%

Unterhaching - Verl Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Unterhaching will win (votes: 4 - 30.8%). Verl will win (votes: 7 - 53.8%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 15.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Verl: 26.7% – 80.9%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
24. Eisele K. (G) 23. Schwabl M. 34. Knipping T. 8. Stiefler M. 33. Hennig M. 9. Kugel J. 5. Geis J. 39. Waidner D. 29. Popp L. 17. Torsiello F. 14. Ihorst L.	1. Schulze P. (G) 8. Kammerbauer P. 3. Kohler T. 34. Otto F. 19. Kijewski N. 6. Demming L. 23. Benger M. (C) 7. Stark J. 10. Taz B. 9. Arweiler J. 11. Steczyk D.
Substitutes
26. Breuer A. 1. Heide K. (G) 27. Hoops T. 25. Jastremski L. 3. Lamby M. 20. Leuthard A. 7. Littig R. 4. Schlicke B. 30. Skarlatidis S.	31. Gerhardt K. 21. Knost T. 20. Mhamdi O. 4. Mikic D. 27. Onuoha C. 32. Pekruhl F. (G) 17. Probst E. 2. Schulz P. 24. Stocker M.
Coaches
Herrlich H.	Ende A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
3', 0 - 1, Taz B. ⚽, Gerhardt K. (A),
10', 0 - 2, Steczyk D. ⚽, Kammerbauer P. (A),
20', Kohler T. 🟨,
28', Otto F. 🟨,
28', 1 - 2, Stiefler M. ⚽, Geis J. (A),
30', Otto F. 🟥,
34', Demming L. ↓, Stocker M. ↑,
34', Arweiler J. ↓, Mikic D. ↑,
45', Kijewski N. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
60', Gerhardt K. ↓, Stark J. ↑,
60', Taz B. ↓, Knost T. ↑,
71', Kugel J. ↓, Skarlatidis S. ↑,
82', Popp L. ↓, Jastremski L. ↑,
90+2', Steczyk D. ↓, Mhamdi O. ↑,
90+4', Skarlatidis S. 🟨,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 20 in the zone Relegation and 8).

One and the other team get a very uncertain game.

Verl could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Verl will have a small advantage in this match.

There will not play in Unterhaching: Maier S. (Illness) Obermeier T. (Inactive) Winklbauer T. (Illness) Zentrich V. (Injury)

There will not play in Verl: Otto Y. (Yellow Cards)

There are questionable in Verl: Kohler T. (Injury) Lokotsch L. (Ankle Injury)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Unterhaching won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 5:8 (average 1:1.6).

Including matches at home between the teams Unterhaching won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 4:4 (average 2:2).

Last Results with these Odds

Unterhaching - the odds 3.59 are the expected chance of winning is 25.84%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SpVgg Unterhaching
German 3 Bundesliga
08.03.25	Sandhausen - Unterhaching	2:2 ✺
22.02.25	Erzgebirge Aue - Unterhaching	1:0 ✺
16.02.25	Unterhaching - Saarbrücken	2:0 ✺
08.02.25	Rot-Weiß Essen - Unterhaching	1:1 ✺
02.02.25	Unterhaching - Osnabrück	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.7 TLWTL
- SC Verl
German 3 Bundesliga
08.03.25	Verl - Arminia Bielefeld	2:1 ✺
01.03.25	Dynamo Dresden - Verl	3:0 ✺
22.02.25	Verl - Viktoria Köln	1:1 ✺
16.02.25	Energie Cottbus - Verl	1:0 ✺
09.02.25	Verl - Hannover II	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 WLTLW

Latest Head to Head

German 3 Bundesliga
05.10.24	Verl - Unterhaching	2:0
03.02.24	Unterhaching - Verl	1:0
02.09.23	Verl - Unterhaching	0:0
14.03.21	Verl - Unterhaching	2:1
12.01.21	Unterhaching - Verl	3:4

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